Iran’s ICBM Capability on Global Display

- “Kavoshgar-3” Launch Site in yellow; Omid satellite and rocket body orbit shown in white According to various news sources Iran launched an indigenously manufactured Omid (Hope) satellite into a 55 degree inclined low earth orbit (LEO) at 18:30 GMT yesterday via their indigenously developed Kavoshgar-3 (Explorer-3) launch vehicle. Other reports cite the launch vehicle as being the Safir-2 making the specific identification unconfirmed.

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Early direct and parametric observations are indicating that this was a 2-stage launch to orbital altitude. One orbit of the Omid and rocket body is accomplished in 90 minutes and the orbital altitudes range from an apogee of 200 miles to a perigee (closest approach to earth) of 150 miles. The perigee altitude is just 50 miles above the minimum altitude required for sub-oribital space flight, making the Omid's orbit analogous to that of an orbiting ICBM warhead. The launched satellite is reportedly a capsule carrying live animals (a rat, some turtles and worms). The live animals onboard the satellite would tend to indicate that Iran intends to precisely deorbit the satellite for a return to earth at some point. Even if the animals fail to survive this "space mission" a successful deorbiting of the capsule would be the primary objective of the mission. I cannot help but to speculate that given Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad recent statements of a "surprise" on 11 February that this capsule is to be deorbited on that date. Assessment: Iran is using the anniversary of its Shi'a Islamic revolution to demonstrate its new intercontinental ballistic missile system and warhead deorbiting capability to the West and to Israel despite months and months of futile Western-imposed economic sanctions. The message sent by this launch is now crystal clear: time has now expired with respect to making a decision to act against the Iranian nuclear weapons and delivery program.