According to a new
Pew Research Center survey, a majority of the populations of Poland, Spain, the UK, France, Canada, and the United States all support Ukraine becoming a NATO member.
Among the major countries polled, support for Ukraine joining NATO is especially high in Canada (65 percent) and the U.S. (62 percent). Only Germany (36 percent) and Italy (35 percent) have less than a majority supporting Ukraine's NATO membership.
A clear disconnect exists between the public's understanding of NATO membership and reality. Under
Article 5 of the Washington Treaty,
The [NATO] Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
As a result, since Ukraine has been attacked by Russia -- and a portion of its formerly sovereign territory (the Crimea) formally annexed by the aggressor, Ukraine's membership in NATO would immediately trigger Article 5. And since the economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts to date have not been successful at removing Russia from the Crimea nor in preventing the ongoing Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine, the Article 5 invocation would necessarily require NATO military intervention in both regions of Ukraine to push Russia back out onto its own territory in order for the treaty to retain any real meaning of "collective defense."
Yet, only Poland has a majority (50 percent) of its public that would approve NATO sending arms to Ukraine. Even this level of minimal support would not meet the NATO treaty obligations -- NATO nations would need to send both troops and arms to Ukraine to remove Russia. In a sense, NATO would have to declare war on Russia to meet its Article 5 requirements in Ukraine should this nation have full membership.
Lower levels of support for arming Ukraine exist in the U.S. (46 percent), Canada (44 percent), the UK (42 percent), and France (40 percent). It is particularly clear that the Spanish public has a poor grasp of NATO treaty obligations, given that 57 percent support Ukraine joining NATO while only 25 percent support NATO arming Ukraine. Having Ukraine join NATO without NATO arming Ukraine is a nonsensical contradiction in light of the recent events between Ukraine and Russia.
The sad state of the NATO alliance is revealed in the results obtained when Pew asked respondents "If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally, do you think our country should or should not use military force to defend that country?" The results are staggering.
Only the U.S. (56 percent) and Canada (53 percent) had a majority answering yes, whereas all other nations had somewhere between just 38 and 49 percent agreeing with the concept of collective defense.
The incoherence is best exemplified in Canada, where two-thirds of the public indicated they would be in favor of Ukraine joining NATO. Since Ukraine is a neighboring country to Russia and is in a "serious military conflict" with Russia, this would meet the criteria of the question regarding the use of military force by NATO allies to defend a fellow NATO member next to Russia. Note that 53 percent of Canadians answered in the affirmative to this type of collective defense, which would lead you to conclude a majority of Canadians approve of war with Russia.
But not so fast. Keep in mind that just 44 percent of Canadians would approve of sending NATO arms to Ukraine to defend itself against Russia. A problem arises: either Canadians do not understand that Ukraine neighbors Russia, or they have fundamental inconsistencies in what they view as a preferred response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Similar problems exist in the responses from other nations, making this Pew survey difficult to use for policy guidance.
The picture becomes more complicated when one considers that only 53 percent of Ukrainians want to join NATO, and just 54 percent want arms from NATO. In other words, there is generally a higher level of support for Ukraine joining NATO outside Ukraine versus inside this nation. Similarly, just 23 percent of Ukrainians believe military force should be used against the "rebels" in eastern Ukraine, versus 47 percent who want to negotiate a settlement with Russia and/or the "rebels."
Furthermore, the majority of Western nation publics are not even convinced Russia is behind the invasion of eastern Ukraine -- which poses a challenge that Putin's public relations machine has masterfully generated: the public may or may not (the polling language and data is unclear) support NATO military action in Ukraine if this country joins NATO and is attacked by Russia, but the NATO publics do not dominantly see the current Russian attacks on Ukraine as what they are. Just 42 percent of Americans, 37 percent of Canadians, 44 percent of the French, and 40 percent of those in the UK see Russia as "most to blame for the violence in eastern Ukraine." This realist viewpoint dips even lower in Germany and Italy (29 percent each) and Spain (37 percent). Only a majority of Poles (57 percent) see the Russian invasion for what it is.
The mistake of German re-unification may also be finally coming to the surface. Eastern Germans (i.e., those formerly in East Germany) have a generally positive view of Putin (40 percent), and 42 percent would like to see the West reduce its economic sanctions on Russia. A sharp divide exists between western and eastern Germany on attitudes towards NATO and Russia. Eastern Germany is still, in many respects, the "East Germany" of old.
In the United States, support for NATO and Ukraine follows clear partisan lines. Less than half of Democrats believe the "U.S. should use military force to defend [a] NATO ally against Russia," compared to 69 percent (still, a low number given Article 5 requirements) of Republicans. Only 39 percent of Democrats support NATO sending arms to Ukraine, versus 60 percent of Republicans. The topic of who is to blame for the violence in eastern Ukraine is equally uninspiring: 39 percent of Democrats blame Russia, and just 50 percent of Republicans.
Ukrainians themselves are confused -- only 45 percent blame Russia, and just "half of Ukrainians (47 percent) believe Russia is a major military threat to other neighboring countries." A disturbingly small number of eastern Ukrainians (30 percent) are concerned about Russia's territorial ambitions. Concern over this issue (61 percent) is also well below where it should be in western Ukraine, perhaps because only "47 percent of Ukrainians say the dissolution of the Soviet Union has been a good thing for their country," while more than one-third say it was a "bad thing."
The neo-Soviet era has begun (or rather, it never ended) in Russia, as evidenced by the fact that "Russians [61 percent] agree that parts of other countries belong to them and a majority [69 percent] says it is a bad thing that the USSR no longer exists." More than 80 percent of Russians hold negative views of the United States, and 80 percent have a negative view of NATO. The Russian public is evidently delusional about what is going on in their own country, since 63 percent believe the Russian government respects the personal freedoms of its people. Most Russians also blame the West for the violence in eastern Ukraine.
The polling results show that NATO is confused, and Ukraine is confused. Consequently, Ukraine is going to have to fend for itself until it generates clear public resolve -- both internally and externally -- on the preferred path forward.
