By Kelly O'Connell ——Bio and Archives--September 26, 2011
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Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global petroleum extraction is reached. Afterward, production enters terminal decline. The aggregate production rate from an oil field over time usually grows exponentially until the rate peaks and then declines--sometimes rapidly--until the field is depleted.
Scientists, researchers and writers interviewed throughout "Peak Oil and a Changing Climate" describe the diminishing returns our world can expect as it deals with the consequences of peak oil even as it continues to pretend it doesn't exist. These experts predict substantially increased transportation costs, decreased industrial production, unemployment, hunger & social chaos as supplies of fuel dwindle & eventually disappear.What many leftist writers suggest is a coming apocalyptic scenario where stronger and wealthier nations battle against the poorer ones for ever-dwindling resources, creating Peak Oil Wars while production and farming ebb, as mass starvation and transportation collapses play out in the background. But is this what the near future holds for earth?
Marion King Hubbert was one of the most eminent--and controversial--earth scientists of his time. Born on a ranch in San Saba, Texas in 1903, he did his university education, including his Ph.D., at the University of Chicago. One of his fundamental objectives was to move geology from what he called its "natural history phase" into its "physical science phase," firmly based in physics, chemistry and, in particular, rigorous mathematics.Hubbert had a powerful mind, taking three different degrees as an undergraduate. But he also had, as is true of many intellectuals, a bent towards demanding leadership of the elites over the uneducated. This is the model used by all socialists, Marxists, and other progressives, first adumbrated by Joachim of Flora in the 12th century (see: Obama, the Duke of Babylon & the Christian Origins of Marxism). In Hubbert's case, his ideas took root in a leftist movement called "Technocracy," quite reminiscent of August Comte's plan to have all of society run by an autocracy of "scientists" (see: Sources of Madness--The Insane Thinkers of the Modern Age)
The knowledge essential to competent intellectual leadership in this situation is preeminently geological - a knowledge of the earth's mineral and energy resources. The importance of any science, socially, is its effect on what people think and what they do. It is time earth scientists again become a major force in how people think rather than how they live.He also doomsayed the coming chaos after Peak Oil:
The steep ride up the and down the energy curve is the most abnormal thing that has ever happened in human history. Most of human history is a no-growth situation. Our culture is built on growth and that phase of human history is almost over and we are not prepared for it. Our biggest problem is not the end of our resources. That will be gradual. Our biggest problem is a cultural problem. We don't know how to cope with it.
Technocracy claimed politics & economic arrangements based on the "Price System" (i.e., traditional economics) were antiquated. The only hope of building a successful modern world was to let engineers & other technology experts run the country on engineering principles. Rejecting all traditional political science, Technocrats refused to even use standard geographical maps as their boundaries were political, so only referred to states by geographical coordinates.
Technocracy was a weird movement flourishing briefly during the Great Depression, advocating the merger of all of North and Central America into one nation, ruled by scientists & engineers replacing politicians. The dollar was to be replaced by the erg, the centimeter-gram-second (CGS) unit of energy. The movement's fondness for matching red and grey uniforms & militaristic fleets of grey vehicles brought it under great suspicion given the state of Europe, and interest in the movement soon collapsed.
Technocracy was a utopian dream, a cult-like movement, and a concept that captured the public's attention. The fingerprints of Technocracy are deeply impressed upon today's political, economic, military, social and spiritual landscape. There isn't anything Technocracy hasn't touched, chiefly because as a type of meta-philosophy, it rests on the most basic principle of human rebellion: By pursuing god-like illumination, Man can become as God. Man, not God, is the ultimate engineer of human destiny--therefore, Man is God. Technocracy represents the pinnacle of Man's quest for self-deification: The perfectibility of Man through the thoughts of his mind and the subsequent works of his hands. It's the cosmic taunt, stemming from the most ancient of days. What God can do, Man can do. The Garden of Eden will be remade.
Technocracy in the modern sense is an idea that came to prominence during the early decades of the 20th century. Auguste Comte (1798-1857) offered mankind a "Religion of Humanity." Understood through the laws of science, Humanity was the "only true Great Being," and thus Humanity should "direct every aspect of our life, individual or collective." Comte called this Positivism, and viewed it as the pinnacle stage of human development; scientific laws determine truth, therefore only a scientifically enlightened elite should guide humanity. Positivism was a "regenerating doctrine," an "all-embracing creed" that would lead the world out of ignorance, corruption, and anarchy through a positive, scientific worldview.
At its core Technocracy seeks the "engineered society"--not through conventionally understood ideologies such as capitalism or socialism, but through a scientific/engineering mindset. In this sense technology plays a defining role in society, and "social engineers" wield the technical means to transform a population. From economics and industry to population size and general education, the desire of Technocracy was to remake the world in a way that exemplified "efficiency" and guaranteed social harmony.
"Hubbert was imaginative and innovative," recalled Peter Rose, who was Hubbert's boss at the U.S. Geological Survey. But he had "no concept of technological change, economics or how new resource plays evolve. It was a very static view of the world." Hubbert also assumed that there could be an accurate estimate of ultimately recoverable resources, when in fact it is a constantly moving target.Hubbert, as another worshiper of the science of humanism, greatly overestimated the ability of "experts" to understand the world and control it. Worse, his egotism informed him humanity could not survive without such insane conceit. Adds Yergin:
Overall U.S. oil production has increased more than 10% since 2008. Net oil imports reached a high point of 60% in 2005, but today, thanks to increased production and greater energy efficiency (plus the use of ethanol), imports are down to 47%.
Studies over the years by industry and government alike estimate that there may be between 800 billion and more than one trillion barrels of oil locked up in the Colorado rocks--nearly 3 times known reserves in Saudi Arabia.Meanwhile, Exxon in the US Gulf just discovered three majors finds directly after the end of the Obama moratorium. In fact, according to the Saudi Gazette, America will become the NUMBER ONE oil producer by year 2017! And much of America is unexplored for oil formations with modern technology because of regressive and illogical bans of drilling.So who knows how much more petroleum lies below our land and beyond our shores. The fact is that all "known recoverable" petroleum reserves are constantly in flux because of continually improved extraction technology and newly discovered pools. But such facts, and inconvenient details are quickly swept under the carpet like so much embarrassing detritus by environmentalists.
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Kelly O’Connell is an author and attorney. He was born on the West Coast, raised in Las Vegas, and matriculated from the University of Oregon. After laboring for the Reformed Church in Galway, Ireland, he returned to America and attended law school in Virginia, where he earned a JD and a Master’s degree in Government. He spent a stint working as a researcher and writer of academic articles at a Miami law school, focusing on ancient law and society. He has also been employed as a university Speech & Debate professor. He then returned West and worked as an assistant district attorney. Kelly is now is a private practitioner with a small law practice in New Mexico.