One Step Forward, Two Steps Back in Syria

Speaking to the press at United Nations Headquarters in New York following her first briefing to the Security Council on November 5th, Sigrid Kaag, Special Coordinator of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)-UN Joint Mission overseeing the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons program, said that the Syrian authorities were cooperating so far. Key equipment for all of its declared chemical weapons production facilities have been destroyed.

The next phase, to begin the middle of this month, involves the far more complicated task of securing and destroying the chemical weapons themselves. Ms. Kaag would not say whether rebel forces, which may control access to some of the 23 chemical weapons sites declared by Syria, are cooperating in helping to ensure security for the inspection teams. Nor do we know where the chemicals will be ultimately destroyed. Russia, which has pushed this whole initiative from the get-go, has apparently rejected the idea of having the chemicals shipped to Russia for destruction. U.S. Ambassador to the UN Samantha Power, during her own remarks to the press following the Security Council briefing, held to the Obama administration narrative that it was President Obama’s “credible threat to use force” which “proved a catalyst in focusing the international community on a diplomatic solution.” The truth is that what Secretary of State John Kerry called an “unbelievably small, limited kind of effort,” which President Obama was already pulling away from initiating because of lack of Congressional support, was largely a sideshow that only served to demonstrate Obama’s vacillation. Ambassador Power also continued to demand that Syrian President Assad step aside:

“In speaking to you today, I also want to address a myth associated with the chemical weapons elimination. The chemical weapons agreement and implementation have not changed the U.S. position on Assad. A man who gasses his people - and who uses Scuds and all other forms of terror against his people - is not fit to govern those people.”

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This is a hollow statement at best. The Obama administration’s decision to remain largely on the sidelines of the civil war engulfing Syria gives it little leverage to influence the outcome. Attempts by the United States and Russia, along with Joint UN-Arab League Special Representative for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi, to jumpstart peace talks in Geneva between the Syrian government and the opposition have foundered so far, largely because of disunity amongst the opposition. Assad’s military is winning on the ground, and he has bought some time and legitimacy by cooperating with the OPCW-UN Joint Mission. And Ambassador Power conceded the challenge posed by al-Qaeda affiliated groups opposing the Assad regime “because these are groups that do not have the support of any right-thinking, decent, humane member of the international community.” However, they do have the support of many of the jihadists entering the country to depose Assad’s secular government. The U.S. position on replacing Assad may not have changed, but a post-Assad Syria could be even worse if the jihadists take control. The humanitarian situation in Syria today is very dire, as Ambassador Power emphasized in her remarks. Massive starvation and malnutrition, closed hospitals and schools, and swelling numbers of civilians killed and displaced have turned Syria into a swamp of despair. Ambassador Power has correctly rebuked the Syrian government for blocking access of humanitarian workers and relief to the people who are desperately in need. “It is outrageous that the Syrian government, which has granted visas and facilitated the work of the chemical weapons inspectors, has not lifted a finger to allow relief workers into the country to assist those citizens who are in desperate need,” Power said. This is an area, like the destruction of chemical weapons, where the international community can unite in pressing the Assad regime, as Ambassador Power said, “to facilitate the rapid expansion of humanitarian relief operations, including by lifting bureaucratic impediments to such operations.” A strong enforceable Security Council resolution, not just a Presidential Statement, may have to be the next step. The Obama administration should stop trying for the time being to obtain some sort of grand bargain to replace Assad with a transitional government while the opposition remains so fractured and increasingly jihadist in composition. Concentrate instead on the two doables – elimination of the Syrian chemical weapons stockpiles and opening up access for the delivery of humanitarian relief to the Syrian civilians caught in the cross-fire of the war.