Drier Springs in British Columbia? Not According to the Data

While some members of the academic establishment argue that Canadians deserve an honest discussion on climate change, the same media outlets fail to provide one. Want an honest climate change discussion? Fine, let us have one.

In a recent article from the Globe and Mail, Mark Hume discusses how climate change is influencing forest fires in British Columbia, and he interviews some academic and federal government scientists for the story. The relationship between climate change and forest fires is a complex one, and controversial. Actually, it appears to be more driven by politics and pseudo-religious beliefs, not rigorous science. Take a single sentence, the second sentence in the quote below, from Hume's Globe and Mail article, which necessitates a detailed response and rebuttal -- and then imagine all the other innumerable and equally dubious sentences that appear in the mainstream media each week about climate change that also warrant a critical examination:

"And droughts will become more common because of climate change, which has already caused the average temperature to climb by 1.7 C in B.C., with a up [sic] to a 4 C increase predicted over the next 100 years. Climate change means greater precipitation in some regions, but it has reduced winter snow packs and is producing drier springs and longer summer droughts. Dr. Daniels said droughts in B.C. are driven by oceanic conditions such as El Nino, which brings warmer water up from the South Pacific. El Nino events have become more frequent and more intense off the West Coast since 1980."

So climate change is "producing drier springs" in British Columbia?

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Once again, into the data -- in this case, the Environment Canada Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data (AHCCD) database. There are 100 climate stations in the AHCCD database with long-term precipitation data throughout British Columbia. Since records began, there is only one station (i.e., one percent of all stations) with a statistically significant declining trend in springtime precipitation. Conversely, 63 percent of the stations have a significant increasing trend in springtime precipitation, and 92 percent of the AHCCD climate stations in British Columbia exhibit either a significant trend or a non-significant positive correlation towards more springtime precipitation since records began. That is most certainly not a drying trend in springtime. Over the past three decades, only one station has a significant decreasing trend in springtime precipitation, balanced out by the one station with a significant increasing trend over this timeframe. Of the remaining stations that have non-significant trends during the last 30 years, there are 30 percent more with positive correlations towards increasing spring precipitation than there are stations with negative correlations. When we look back over the complete climate record in British Columbia, it is undeniable that spring precipitation is increasing, not decreasing. Even the past three decades -- a timeframe climate scientists like to use -- provides absolutely no evidence that springtime precipitation is declining in the province. Some may argue in response that we also need to consider temperature changes when assessing whether springtime is becoming drier in British Columbia. Perhaps, but then journalists should start better defining their terms. The general public would reasonably assume that a drying trend during springtime simply means less precipitation. And on that metric, springtime is most certainly not getting drier in British Columbia. Are springs getting warmer in the province? The answer depends on the timeframe you consider. Of the 49 climate stations that have both precipitation and temperature data, about two-thirds have a significant warming trend in spring temperatures if we go back to the start of the records, and almost all sites have either a significant warming trend or a non-significant positive correlation. So springs in British Columbia have become both much wetter and much warmer since records began -- but that isn't a pure and uniform drying trend by any stretch as the Globe and Mail article would have you believe. Here is where it becomes problematic for the climate alarmists. Over the past three decades, there is not a single one of these climate stations that has a significant warming trend during springtime. Not one. On the other hand, 8 percent have significant cooling trends and a whopping 96 percent of the climate stations have either a significant springtime cooling trend or a non-significant negative correlation towards cooler springtime temperatures. And we must also remember that atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased far more rapidly since the early 1980s than they did during the first seven decades of the 20th century. Consequently, if we see warming occurring during the early and mid-20th century, and none since this time, this warming is unequivocally not due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, no matter which we examine the claims that climate change is "producing drier springs" in British Columbia, the data does not appear to be in support. If anything, climate change appears to be producing wetter springs in the province. As much as the climate activists scream about a war on science by those demanding real evidence for climate change impacts, it is actually the activists conducting the war on science.