There are fewer than ten days left in this long, brutal, but very exciting ten month long mayoral campaign.
But contrary to all the pundits on both sides of the political spectrum, I believe the stars are aligning for Doug Ford to beat the frontrunner John Tory. And hand John Tory his well-deserved sixth career political defeat.
Could you imagine the heads of all the leftist anti-Ford haters- exploding in the downtown head offices of the CBC, CTV, Toronto Star, Globe and Mail and NOW Magazine?
Shades of downtown Baghdad. But I digress.
The so-called political experts of the leftist media had been hyping and promoting for months their favorite son, their White Knight- Olivia Chow to replace the controversial Mayor Rob Ford.
Until much to their chagrin and astonishment, they discovered that Olivia Chow’s insurmountable lead, had vanished over the summer. Like Justin Trudeau’s credibility over ISIS.
Faster than you can say publicly- subsidized Hazelburn co-op meets illegal Chinatown rub and tug parlor
And all of a sudden, in September, Chow was tied for second with Rob Ford with John Tory leading.
Then faster than you can say publicly- subsidized Hazelburn co-op meets illegal Chinatown rub and tug parlor, Chow further dropped to third place- first behind Rob Ford and then Doug Ford who replaced his brother on the ballot.
Overnight, the populist Rob Ford, with the personal issues, was replaced by his more solid, but less charismatic and seemingly less popular Doug Ford.
Once again, the pro Chow political pundits, had hoped that this new development would be a political game changer for Chow.
But alas, the pundits were proven wrong again.
Doug Ford, who was initially written off, as an unpleasant and mean bully, has run a surprisingly very effective and disciplined campaign.
Who would have thunk?
Successfully labeled Tory as a downtown, out of touch self-entitled Rosedale Golf Club Wasp elitist
In the numerous debates against Chow and Tory, Ford has handled himself well. He has a better knowledge of the issues and the inner workings of council than his two opponents. Ford has been firm, but charming. Argumentative, but personable. He has thoroughly manhandled the outclassed, inarticulate Chow. And Ford has successfully labeled Tory as a downtown, out of touch self-entitled Rosedale Golf Club Wasp elitist, solely propped up by old family money and family connections.
Doug Ford has kept to the winning message of respect for the taxpayers. Keeping taxes low. Building the Scarborough subway. And subways in general. Finding government efficiencies, ie privatizing garbage services east of Yonge Street. And promoting business and jobs in Toronto.
It is true, on occasion, Ford has taken a shot at his fellow Toronto city councilors. Recently, he was criticized for calling them “a pack of wolves. “ Personally, to be compared to those 44 spendthrift, free-loading Toronto politicos- is an insult to wolves.
They’re more like a pack of jackals.
Ford Nation, that hardy band of mostly non-white multicultural and multi-ethnic working class communities in the suburbs have stuck with Doug Ford. They are as fired up about Doug Ford as they were with their hero, Rob Ford, who always had their back.
I believe the more disciplined, clean-living and buttoned down, Doug Ford, a proven self-made successful business man, has picked up additional support in downtown Toronto- Chow and Tory Country.
Surprisingly, Doug seems to generally enjoy campaigning among the people.
Contrast a smiling Doug surrounded by laughing Ford voters with an unsmiling, driven Chow who always seems to be on a forced Mao-like march through the city.
A recent
Forum Research poll still has Doug Ford, at 33% within striking distance of Tory at 39%. With Chow at 23%.
This is Doug Ford’s likely path to victory.
Notwithstanding the Forum Research poll, my own internal polling has Ford a few points closer.
Firstly, all Ford opponents agree that polling probably underestimates Ford’s strength due to a reluctance of certain Ford supporters to publicly support Ford even with pollsters.
Secondly, Ford is well positioned in second. If Ford was tied with Tory, anti-Ford Chow supporters would leave their favored candidate and hold their noses and vote Tory to stop Ford.
Since Tory is apparently solidly in the lead, there will be fewer strategic voting by Chow supporters.
Thirdly, I also believe that Chow has a strong ground game and should bring out to vote on election day, more supporters than the polls have estimated. Thus taking more voters away from Tory.
Conversely, I believe that Tory’s support is a mile wide, but an inch deep.
Bland, inoffensive Tory does not command the same fierce loyalty as Ford Nation supporters.
I think some Tory supporters, out of apathy- will stay home.
So it comes down to Ford’s supporters especially in the vote-rich communities of Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough.
I believe that these steadfast Ford supporters are mad as hell about how Rob and now Doug have been treated by the elitist press and the downtown elites. These communities are also mad as hell as to how they have been mistreated and ignored by these very same elitists. They love the Fords. They believe only Doug Ford can represent their interests at city hall.
I predict that these suburbanites are going to come out in such numbers for Ford as to blow away Tory and his elitist cabal of special downtown Toronto interests.
We shall see history made on October 27th, folks.
This election will be epic!!!
