By Alan Joel ——Bio and Archives--November 19, 2014
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"One key piece of the order, officials said, will allow many parents of children who are American citizens or legal residents to obtain legal work documents and no longer worry about being discovered, separated from their families and sent away. That part of Mr. Obama's plan alone could affect as many as 3.3 million people who have been living in the United States illegally for at least five years, according to an analysis by the Migration Policy Institute, an immigration research organization in Washington. But the White House is also considering a stricter policy that would limit the benefits to people who have lived in the country for at least 10 years, or about 2.5 million people. Extending protections to more undocumented immigrants who came to the United States as children, and to their parents, could affect an additional one million or more if they are included in the final plan that the president announces."Hence, if Executive Amnesty goes through, the warning on the healthcare.gov website regarding undocumented immigrants is no longer applicable to those who would receive protections; thus, they would be eligible to purchase an ObamaCare plan. As it stands now, a large number of legal immigrants are already using ObamaCare's Medicaid expansion. In a report released just this past week from the Center for Immigration Studies, "immigrants have accounted for 42 percent of the growth in Medicaid enrollment since ObamaCare began being implemented in 2011". Furthermore, "The high rate and significant growth in Medicaid associated with immigrants is mainly the result of a legal immigration system that admits large numbers of immigrants with relatively low-levels of education, many of whom end up poor and uninsured." 2011-2013 have proven to be successful for immigrant-related ObamaCare signups; therefore, the likelihood for immigrants who receive amnesty to sign up for an ObamaCare plan or product seems relatively high. As a very rough estimate number, if Obama was to grant amnesty to 5 million immigrants, (a middle estimate figure) and assuming the signup rate for ObamaCare just among those immigrants is 42% (to stay on trend), then 2.1 million immigrants would sign up. If HHS is predicting 9.1 million enrolled by the end of the year, and then potentially another 2.1 million can be also factored in, the White House is getting closer to the originally projected figures. Remember, "in the past, the White House has used the budget office numbers as a benchmark for success under the Affordable Care Act", and the CBO had predicted 13 million by the end of this year, so adding immigrants newly eligible through Executive Amnesty will certainly help to salvage ObamaCare numbers. With the news this morning that Obama will announce Executive Action on immigration this coming Friday, it seems all the more likely that Executive Amnesty is tied to ObamaCare. The White House has been mum about how many people have enrolled in the past few days of open enrollment season, suggesting that the number is low. An independent site, acasignups.net, backs this assertion. At this point, no one in the Administration even cares about the cost anymore. It's all about saving the legislation from abomination, no matter the pricetag or method. That's probably why the CBO has not even bothered to score the impact of ObamaCare on the deficit since 2012--before Obamacare even began to be fully implemented! Of course, it's not like anyone really believes either by now that Obamacare won't add to the deficit. Therefore, if the numbers so far are not meeting even lowered expectations, than it is imperative to get the numbers up NOW. That is why Obama has decided to act on Amnesty so soon after ObamaCare signups recently--so stay tuned for Friday, and pay attention to how the Executive action affects immigration and ObamaCare.
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Alan Joel has been a practicing CPA in NYC for more than 40 years. He loves liberty and writes on the politics of taxes at his popular blog, AlanJoelNY.com