BP predicts that global oil demand will peak in 2042 due to the penetration of electric vehicles, the slowing economic growth in China and global actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. But not all forecasters agree. The International Energy Agency expects oil demand to continue to increase through the end of its modeling horizon--2040. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world's largest oil exporters, believe it will continue to grow until at least 2050.1 The expectation that oil demand will peak is the opposite of what was once expected. Some forecasters had expected oil supply to peak, but technological advances (e.g. hydraulic fracturing) have changed that thinking.
BP's Energy Outlook forecasts global supply and demand through 2035. Some of the major themes in its 2017 forecast are2:
China's energy demand growth slows to 1.9 percent per year by 2035--less than one-third its rate in the past 20 years (6.3 percent per year). Its GDP growth averages about 5 percent per year, around half the average pace of growth since 2000. China gradually shifts away from energy-intensive industrial output toward more energy-light consumer and services activity.
India's energy consumption grows the fastest among the world's economies.
Emerging Asia's energy consumption increases by 62 percent by 2035, with coal contributing the largest increment of growth.
The global car fleet doubles due to rising prosperity, which boosts car ownership, especially in emerging markets. Fuel efficiency goals and lower battery costs spur electrification. The number of electric cars increases from 1.2 million in 2015 to about 100 million by 2035 (6 percent of the global fleet).
There is an abundance of oil supply, which contrasts with slow growing oil demand. Cumulative oil demand to 2035 is expected to be around 700 billion barrels--significantly less than recoverable oil in the Middle East alone.
