Although the Syrian regime welcomed the Russian-American ceasefire agreement, President Assad was quick to proclaim his determination to reestablish Syrian state control over all parts of the country that are currently in the hands of “terrorists.” He also demonstrated no willingness to move ahead with regime reform. Yet alongside the clear difficulties threatening the success of the ceasefire agreement, there are significant factors that may enable it. The major issue that should trouble Israel in light of the ceasefire agreement is the situation in southern Syria. Thus far, this front has remained relatively stable: the Israeli Air Force has enjoyed freedom of action in the skies of southern Syria (in practice, with Russian agreement), and more moderate rebel forces associated with the Free Syrian Army have demonstrated dominance in the region. Israel must now make sure that the rebels do not succeed in dragging it into the internal Syrian conflict by means of mortar fire resulting in Israeli retaliation against Assad’s forces.
