While even before the crisis, Syria was a poor economy, in the last five years GDP per capita fell to less than a third of its pre-war level. Approximately 11 percent of the population in Syria were killed or injured in the course of the war. In addition, late 2015 estimates point to about 3.1 million refugees, 1.2 million migrants, and 6.4 million displaced persons within Syria. Even with foreign aid, it would take the Syrian economy decades to recover to its previous level: the IMF estimates 20 years of reconstruction. Overall, Syria no longer represents the stable rival with which Israel contended both in war and in peace negotiations, and such stability is unlikely to be the case going forward. Having a weakened, fractured rival is not necessarily good news, as the experience of Lebanon has shown. In particular, if one hoped to resolve the Syria-Israel conflict, the prospects of a reasonable solution have dimmed significantly. That, of course, has repercussions for other elements of Israel’s relations with the Arab world, especially with Lebanon.
