Recent weeks have seen a gradual erosion of the Egyptian-brokered November 2012 ceasefire that ended operation Pillar of Defense. While the first year following the ceasefire was characterized by a significant drop in violent exchanges between the parties, with 2014 the situation has been progressively less stable. Nonetheless, both Hamas and Israel need to provide mutual reassurance of their interest in returning to a situation of controlled conflict in the south, under which Hamas will “for the most part” keep the quiet and Israel will “for the most part” retaliate in a calibrated and limited way. Needless to say, this signal-based mode of conflict management is far from stable, but short of a larger political engagement and a revision of the current policy, it is the most plausible solution to the current instability.
