300: Will Randy Johnson Be The Last Member Of This Exclusive Club

San Francisco Giants pitcher Randy Johnson is one victory away from collecting the 300th of his major league career.

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When Johnson, who is known affectionately as the Big Unit, does attain this milestone we should savor it. It will cap off a 20 year plus career where the six foot ten lefty has won 5 Cy Young Awards, struck out more than 4,800 batters (only Nolan Ryan has more), struck out 20 batters in a single game, thrown two no-hitters including a perfect game, has a World Series ring with the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks in which he was named World Series co-MVP and inadvertently ended the life of a seagull when it crossed the path of his fastball near home plate during a spring training game. We should also savor it because Johnson will likely be the last pitcher to ever win 300 games. All things considered the modern baseball fan has been spoiled. Of the 24 pitchers who presently have 300 or more wins, nine of them have attained this total since 1982. The first of this crop was the well traveled Gaylord Perry who did with the Seattle Mariners graying temples and all. At this stage of his career, Perry was known as the Ancient Mariner. Even President Reagan weighed in. When he called to congratulate Perry on his 300th win he told him, "I just know it’s an ugly rumor that you and I are the only two people left alive who saw Abner Doubleday throw out the first pitch." Now not everyone buys into this line of reasoning. Larry Stone of The Seattle Times writes:

I don't buy that for a second, although I understand the reasoning. The line of thinking is this: In the era of five-man rotations, relief specialists and pitch counts, modern-day starters simply won't have the opportunity for enough decisions to reach 300.

Although these are certainly factors, Stone omits one crucial factor: innings pitched. Gaylord Perry might have not been around to see Abner Doubleday but he sure spent a lot of time on a pitching mound. Between 1969 and 1975, Perry pitched 300 or more innings six out of those seven seasons. The one season he didn’t pitch 300 innings was in 1971 when he threw 280 innings while with the San Francisco Giants. The last time a major league pitcher threw more than 280 innings in a season was when knuckleball specialist Charlie Hough did so in 1987 with the Texas Rangers when threw 285 and one third innings. Speaking of knuckleball pitchers Phil Niekro is a member of the 300 win club and threw 300 or more innings in a season four times in his distinguished career. Tom Seaver, yet another member of the 300 win club, never pitched 300 innings in a single season. But over a 13-year stretch between 1967 and 1979, Seaver pitched fewer than 250 innings only once in 1974. Fellow 300 win club alumnus Don Sutton pitched at least 200 innings a season for nearly two decades straight between 1966 and 1986, the year he attained his 300th win. The only season Sutton didn’t reach 200 innings in that stretch was the strike shortened season of 1981. Consistency was the hallmark of Greg Maddux, who won his 300th in 2004. Maddux pitched at least 200 innings every season between 1988 and 2006 save for the 2002 season when he fell short by only two thirds of an inning. In today’s game I cannot imagine a starting pitcher throwing 200 innings every season ten years in a row much less fifteen. Let’s look two of Johnson’s fellow starting pitchers on San Francisco Giants – Tim Lincecum and Barry Zito. Lincecum is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. Last season, Lincecum won 18 games while striking out a league leading 265 batters in only 227 innings pitched. As of this writing, he has 29 career victories. For Lincecum to win 271 more games he would essentially need to repeat his 2008 performance for the next fifteen years. He would win his 300th game at the age of 40. That is, of course, assuming nothing goes wrong with Lincecum between now and 2023. There are those who believe his wild pitching delivery will lead to an arm injury. Can Lincecum feasibly pitch 200 plus innings for another fifteen seasons? If Lincecum sustains an injury of any significance not only can he kiss 300 wins goodbye he can also do the same with commercial endorsements (Lincecum stars in a commercial for the videogame MLB 2K9 with a cameo by The Big Unit.) Then again perhaps Lincecum, who turns 25 on June 15th, won’t sustain an injury of any kind. Instead, Lincecum could either simply lose the velocity on his fastball or just lose command of his other pitches or possibly both. Enter Barry Zito. In 2002, Zito won the AL Cy Young Award while with the Oakland Athletics winning a league leading 23 games. Zito had 52 big league wins before his 25th birthday. However, Giants fans have seen little of that Barry Zito. Since signing a 7-year, $126 million contract with the club prior to the 2007 season, Zito has a won loss record of 21-36. In 2008, Zito lost 17 games. In a space of six years, Zito went from leading the league in wins to leading the league in losses. Things have improved little in 2009 with a 1-6 record over the first two months of the season. His innings pitched totals have declined as he failed to crack the 200 inning mark in both ’07 and ’08 and likely won’t do so this season. There are no guarantees in baseball. So if you have the chance to watch Randy Johnson pitch for his 300th win please do so because you will have a chance to see something that is likely to never again be accomplished in Major League Baseball. Aaron Goldstein was a card carrying member of the socialist New Democratic Party of Canada (NDP). Since 09/11, Aaron has reconsidered his ideological inclinations and has become a Republican. Aaron lives and works in Boston.