By Jacques Marcil, Senior Economist
There is a lot more to British Columbia than just two-by-fours, but for some reason, everywhere you look, the problems of the BC forest industry are the focus of what analysts say about the province's economy.
Apparently, they're not aware that BC has performed better than the national average during the five years prior to the recession even as its forest industry was going through very difficult times.
Just like the rest of the country, economic activity in BC began a steady decline at the end of 2008. Twelve months later, BC's economic landscape is a combination of positives and negatives. The main positive factor is the number of large non-residential construction projects. The negatives include lower exports (mainly to the US) and employment (only Ontario and Alberta are worse off since the beginning of the downturn). It is now clear that 2009 will mark the first significant decline for BC's economy since 1982. One meager consolation is that many provinces will do worse this year.
Next year's Olympic and Paralympic Games are a big party, and just like with any other party, the end will come too soon and be followed by a letdown. Once the flame is extinguished, the inevitable after-party cleanup completed and the furniture put back where it belongs, many British Columbians will ask “now what?” No one can blame the province's population for being a bit skeptical about their prospects for economic growth in 2010, but those prospects are good, and not just because of temporary economic boost provided by the Games. The reason: an economy that has more going for it than forestry-focused headlines would suggest.
BC is known for the diversification of its population but less for that of its economy. Its trade infrastructure is resolutely turned towards Asia, where most of the current and upcoming growth is taking place. It is a hotbed for green and renewable energy technologies, has a long list of infrastructure projects underway and benefits from the presence of many innovative firms. As to natural resources, coal and natural gas are now nearing forestry's status. BC is a forward-looking and unique province in many regards.
On top of this, BC benefits from its unique natural setting and the high quality of life associated with both its cities and its more rugged areas. This has allowed it to become a tourism hub both for international visitors and for Calgarians looking for a playground. The result: a solid consumer base, which has taken over for the lagging export sector recently.
As to what will remain after the Olympics, BC should look at its past for a better idea of what the future has in store. Two decades ago, Expo ‘86 was a success not only because it increased the province's profile, but also because it left behind a legacy of infrastructure and urban renewal which still plays a vital role in the Vancouver of today. The Winter Games don't last as long as a world fair, but the capital investment they require will remain in place long after they are over.
Another less tangible asset attached to the Games is their impact on the vision all British Columbians (and not only Lower Mainland ones) have of their province. Often when we have visitors in our homes we tend to notice all the details that are wrong (finger marks on the walls, pet hair on the floor) and we find it hard to believe that our guests only see the positive: tasteful pictures and comfortable furniture.
Maybe this is what will happen to BC next year: the province's residents will pay heed to outsiders' enthusiastic comments about the great potential BC has, and with a bit of luck, they will forget about the forest industry's difficulties and come out of this with the reinforced conviction that “the best place on Earth” is the best place for innovating, for reaching out to new markets and for enjoying a unique and spectacular natural environment.
Jacques Marcil is the author of Currents, the Canada West Foundation's monthly economic bulletin. More information about the Canada West Foundation can be found at [url=http://www.cwf.ca]http://www.cwf.ca[/url].
