I'm fully expecting the Dennis Rodman jokes - maybe they've just gone shopping for wedding dresses together, which could net them a spot in an upcoming Republican campaign commercial that will outrage Democrats - but the serious side of me doubts that Kim Jong Un would let himself remain in seclusion this long knowing it's leading to speculation that he's not in control. At least, this is, if it's up to him, which there's growing reason to think is not the case:
Kim has not been seen in public since Sept. 3, an unusual stretch in a country where media provide a steady stream of propaganda images featuring the Supreme Leader overseeing everything from missile launches to grain harvests. While official media reports say Kim is suffering “discomfort,” his seclusion has sparked discussion about who is in charge of a country that boasts 1.2 million troops and has threatened to turn Seoul into a sea of fire.
Having missed a session of the Supreme People’s Assembly last month, attention has turned to tomorrow’s anniversary celebration of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party and whether Kim, who walked with a limp in the most-recent footage provided, will show up. The surprise visit by Vice Marshal Hwang Pyong So to the closing of the Asian Games in Incheon, South Korea on Oct. 4, fanned social media posts that Kim’s top military official may be in charge, a reading challenged by one former intelligence official.
“The senior North Korean officials’ recent visit is a clear sign Kim is firmly in power,” said Kim Jung Bong, who served in South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and now teaches political science at Hanzhong University. “It’s Kim himself that sent those senior officials,” he said. “There is nothing yet that indicates his power has been compromised.”
Let's go through a few possibilities here:
If he's really "suffering discomfort" and it's causing him to limp, it's possible he's staying out of the public eye for fear that it doesn't inspire the confidence of the public to see the Great Marshal and Dear Leader looking like something less than his strapping, masculine, bowl-cut self. (Then again, his grandfather Kim Il Sung has been dead since 1994 and he is technically still president of North Korea, so let's give infirmity its due.) But you'd think he'd put out some sort of communique - even if just a video head shot - to let it be known that he is still The Man.
If there's been a coup, what are the new leaders waiting for? Maybe they need to systematically eliminate all of Bowl Cut Jr.'s power-broker allies before they go public and let it be known that they're in charge. Or maybe they haven't yet decided whether they can get away with killing him. Then again, maybe they can't afford not to.
Assuming Kim is no longer in command, could we be looking at something set in motion by the U.S. or some other outside force? It's long been thought that regime change in North Korea could only happen via some sort of infiltration/inside job. Try to launch an invasion and you could be looking at the nuking of Seoul, or even Tokyo. But if you could put someone on the inside and gain the trust of Jr. and his deputies, maybe, just maybe, over time . . .
All I know is that I can't think of a time a communist dictator disappeared from view like this only to re-emerge fully in control. Even Gorbachev basically saw his days numbered after the infamous Soviet coup attempt of 1991.
Then again, as the excerpt informs us, the delightfully named Kim Jung Bong seems to think everything will be just fine and Dear Leader is clearly still calling the shots from the palace, however ronery he may be.
Final thought: If this is a coup, and it's the end of the Kim family dynasty in Pyongyang, does that mean no future ascendancy for Kim Jong Uh-Oh? Because I'm sure the kid thinks he should get a turn.
