By Robert Laurie ——Bio and Archives--February 19, 2016
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Yesterday, we talked about how it appears Jeb has seen the writing on the wall. It seems pretty clear that the Bush campaign is headed for the end, and only a miracle in South Carolina will save them. No candidate says "I should stop campaigning, maybe" unless they've already realized that's the case.
Now we have further confirmation that this is the case. According to a piece (also published yesterday) by Erick Erickson, the Bush campaign has burned through hundreds of millions, has less than $15 million left, and will stop paying its staff on Saturday.This is pretty remarkable. Sources close to the Bush campaign are beginning to leak about a call last night. I’m told the Bush team is out of money. Pay for campaign staff will end on Saturday. The campaign is all but over. Additionally, after having hundreds of millions of dollars on hand, the Bush Super PAC has less than $15 million from what I am being told. What a waste.Basically, when you stop paying your staff, you're done. If Erickson's piece is right, Bush will drop out if he doesn't get - at least - a strong third place finish in South Carolina. The polling suggests that's all but impossible.
Obviously, Jeb's people are denying all of this. They still say he's in it for the long haul, and will be around until at least Super Tuesday. For the moment, everyone is sticking to their story. ...But the Politico has just backed up Erickson's claims. Things are not well in Bush-land:Wall Street source tells me top Jebber calling donors: He will drop out unless he finishes "strong third" in South Carolina.
— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) February 18, 2016
Donors, who poured millions into his campaign and super PAC, have stopped giving — one refusing a direct request to raise $1 million this week. Bush himself is hitting the phones, pleading for patience with his most influential supporters. And even some of his confidants are suddenly dejected after a dispiriting week capped off by South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley rejecting Bush in favor of Marco Rubio. “What a kick in the balls,” said one of Bush’s closest supporters, one of the more than a dozen major Bush donors interviewed for this story. The Bush team had been banking on a strong week, believing their candidate’s first solid debate performance last weekend would move the numbers in South Carolina. They thought bringing in George W. Bush on Monday night would generate more enthusiasm and positive earned media than it did. They held out hope that the former president could convince Haley, who’d hedged on backing Rubio after his slip in New Hampshire, to support a fellow governor. But none of it panned outAs I wrote yesterday; Jeb can deny it all he wants but it’s pretty clear that he's looking for a successful Hail Mary tomorrow night. If he somehow manages to get it, he might hang around for a while. Maybe, just maybe, his "stick it out" claims would make a bit of sense. However, if his money is dwindling and he fails to shock the world in SC? It's over. Whatever happens, it's clear that South Carolina has become the demarcation line for the "real" GOP 2016 race. ...And no one expects Jeb to last beyond it.
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