A new
Quinnipiac poll seems to give the lie to the theory of many - myself included - that if you could get John Kasich out of the Republican primary race, Ted Cruz would win a two-man matchup over Donald Trump. Qunnipiac polled Republican primary voters and then broke down scenarios in which Cruz and Kasich, respectively, were removed from the race and their supporters' respective second choices were allocated accordingly.
With Kasich out, Cruz draws close, but perhaps not close enough. It's 46-37 Trump, but with 12 percent undecided. So if you assume those numbers are accurate, almost all of the undecideds would have to break for Cruz for him to win in that two-man race. There are another 5 percent who named someone else entirely, so those voters might be in play for Cruz as well.
So Kasich can argue,
hey, it's not true that Cruz would be leading if not for me. But what Kasich can't argue is that he would be leading under any scenario whatsoever. With Cruz erased from the picture, and the second choices of his voters allocated accordingly, Trump leads Kasich 56-25.
But wait! Kasich does lead some polls! Quinnipiac also polled every possible general election matchup, and here's what they found:
- Clinton 46 Trump 40
- Clinton 45 Cruz 42
- Kasich 47 Clinton 39
- Sanders 52 Trump 38
- Sanders 50 Cruz 39
- Kasich 45 Sanders 44
This, I'm sure, is part of Kasich's rationalization for staying in. He's convinced that he'd be the strongest candidate in a general election campaign, and the numbers do back him up - except for one thing: He has absolutely no hope of getting that far, and every day he keeps trying, he helps the candidate who does worst in the above matchups.
The only hypothetical matchups that really matter of the six listed above are the first two. Hillary is going to be the Democrat nominee because the party apparatus - which is largely controlled by the Clintons and their cronies - will make sure of it. And either Trump or Cruz is going to be the Republican nominee barring some scorch-the-earth brokered convention that alienates half the party's base and destroys the rest of it.
It's fine and good for Kasich to say, look, I'd beat Hillary! Maybe so, but the voters in his party don't want him to be the one to try, so it doesn't matter. You could poll Hillary against Mitt Romney, John McCain and all kinds of other people who also aren't going to be the Republican nominee, and how they would do in the poll would be no more or less irrelevant. All that matters is how she polls against Trump and Cruz - and right now she's having an easy time of it while the Republican contenders do battle with each other.
About those hypothetical two-man polls, though, remember two thing: 1. Any poll is only a snapshot in time. The dynamics of a race can change quickly. 2. It's not a national primary. It's a state-by-state primary. So if Cruz got the two-man race he's been wanting, he would have to beat Trump in the states that remain, not in the entire country.
And as for Hillary . . . no Republican has really got his sights trained on her right now. That's going to change at some point, and let's see how the numbers change when it does.
