Uncertainty of Mideast oil supplies boosts value of Alberta’s vast oil sands to U.S.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A tweet that gave Hosni Mubarak the heave-ho decided Egypt’s immediate future. The Middle East — the Arab world — is in convulsions and vital oil supplies suddenly look more uncertain than ever.

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The Middle East supplies much of the oil America must import or grind to a halt. Alberta supplies more oil than legendary Saudi Arabia, and can supply much more. And that is the nub here, as will become clear below. The connecting line between the events in Cairo and Alberta is murky. Though hailed and promising, Egypt’s Twitter revolution has the potential of turning the product American environmentalists want to bar into a desired commodity that would help to keep America humming — come what may in the Middle East. Wael Ghonim, the 30-year-old Google marketing executive in Cairo, created Facebook and Twitter webpages to give Egyptians a social network that would coalesce groups and citizens demanding President Hosni Mubarak’s immediate ouster. He knew what he wanted and what he would settle for. The same cannot be said about President Barack Obama, Vice-President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. They trimmed their messages to Cairo as the winds would have it. They sent old-school "realist" diplomat Frank Wisner as emissary to Egypt’s modern-day pharaoh and Mr. Wisner declared that Hosni Mubarak must stay to guide Egypt to genuine democracy. Mr. Obama, meanwhile, made encouraging sounds to the leaderless protesters. Not surprisingly, Mr. Obama wanted a foot in both camps. He sought a delicate balance so as not to provoke mayhem. But in Cairo, Mr. Mubarak saw betrayal and his determined opponents saw cold insincerity. Nothing new here. This administration’s conduct of foreign affairs strikes me as a study in indecision, confusion, old-time fantasy, and silly notions of negotiating Iran out of its 50-year quest for nuclear status. In Egypt, the United States will probably pay a heavy price in lost standing and Twitter hero Wael Ghonim sounded the early warning last Sunday on CBS’s 60 Minutes as he recounted his tweet to America. "Dear U.S. government," he reconstructed, "For 30 years, you have supported this (Mubarak) regime. Please, don’t get involved now. We don’t need you." He could have made it shorter: "Get lost." As with all upheavals in history, the product of Egypt’s revolution is incalculable in its early days. But this much is certain: The days of the Middle East, as we have known it in past decades, are numbered. What does it mean to the United States, to Alberta — and to Canada? It means oil from the Middle East is more uncertain because of the convulsions in the region. But steady flow from Alberta is safe. This is the message Gary Mar, Alberta’s representative resident at the Canadian Embassy in Washington, delivered last week when he testified before the House Energy subcommittee, not because he was summoned but because he volunteered, the better to advance the building of the Keystone XL pipeline from the Alberta border to refineries in Louisiana and Texas. Congress has no say in allowing or stopping the huge pipeline to carry the oil sands crude. Though the issuance of the permit is by Presidential Decision, it will take every diplomatic and political effort on Canada’s part to secure it. Mr. Obama’s road should be easier, but isn’t. His choice is between national interest in oil supply security and satisfying the electorally potent environmentalist lobby determined to stop the Canadian XL. Politicians in Canada tend to under-rate the importance of local politics in Washington decision-making. Gary Mar isn’t one of them. The veteran of Alberta cabinets is the oil province’s man on the Potomac. He understands that testifying before Congress is an excellent way to influence Mr. Obama’s decision. He also knows that making Alberta’s case to state capitals and to regionally important media is crucial in this process, and an encompassing article on the XL in the Minneapolis Star Tribune is just the freshest example of how to go about advancing Canadian interests in a Washington that is rattled by upheaval today in Egypt and tomorrow in any unstable oil-producing country on the Middle Eastern map.