Vlad rolling Ukraine back under Mother Russia’s skirts

Washington – Tsar Vlad is on the roll. He rolled up Ukraine back under Mother Russia’s skirts only days before the still-independent country was to sign an association agreement with the European Union.

President Vladimir Putin, Tsar Vlad in my shorthand, must be feeling pretty smug and why wouldn’t he? He roped back in what he needed: The key country essential to the restoration of the Russian empire. This is not a joke. This is Putin’s overriding ambition. Zbigniew Brzezinski, America’s outstanding geopolitical thinker summed it up years ago: Without Ukraine Russia ceases to be an empire, but with Ukraine regained, “Russia automatically turns into empire.” How the regaining comes about is neither here nor there for Putin; he may succeed in persuading Ukrainians to come home to mama; and if they refuse he will coerce them by shutting off natural gas and letting them freeze in the dark. Putin has done it before -- in the glare of Russian television showing technicians wheeling huge valves shut on Russia’s gas pipeline to Ukraine. The brutish spectacle was staged on New Year’s Day 2009.

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This example alone of Russia’s economic blackmail explains how European leaders reacted at last week’s conference of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania. “An almost fearful awe” of Putin, reported Germany’s Der Spiegel describing the effect on the conference delegates as they faced Putin’s “njet” cast by proxy in the person of Ukraine’s president, Viktor Yanukovych. That is the brutal fact facing Europe as it squirms on Russia’s gas-baited hook. No country on the continent is in position to do anything about it and the EU is not much better off. That is why the 28-nations EU will confine itself to righteous indignation and slender hope that cool diplomacy will recover the situation. The EU’s public lament in Vilnius was not contrived and yet surprising in its intensity because the delegates know what lay ahead. Yanukovych had caved in to Putin, though he and his government had negotiated for six years to get to the point of signing. Some of the EU principals and negotiators have come to suspect the openly pro-Russia Ukrainian leader intent to hook up with Tsar Vlad to begin with. What’s to be done? Distasteful as speaking softly is when facing outrage, doing just that may be the better part of wisdom. All the EU could do at this moment is to repeat “the door remains open to Ukraine” and make it credible to Yanukovych and Putin. The alternative was sanctions and isolation. Trouble is sanctions take a long time to hurt the intended target but quickly punish the population. What could help a lot in this situation is a change of heart – and spine – in President Barack Obama. He can reverse his permissiveness to Putin’s every power grab and brutal pressure he uses against any country he deals with, be they former Soviet Republics now sidling up to Europe or former satellites. Mine is a pious hope, but maybe, just maybe Obama can do something to improve his pitiful record in foreign affairs. A “now look here, Vlad” would be a good start even if Obama has to chance a “buzz off Barack.” The calculation makes sense because if he keeps quiet in public and behind the scenes, Obama will end up as a blind and spineless wonder in a time when the future direction of Europe and Russia hangs on a hinge. No sane leader, organ, party or organization would want to encourage forceful action on the part of the Ukrainian protestors. But neither can we remain silent if Yanukovych gets rough. That Putin should want to intervene with force is hard to imagine because he could not possibly be so stupid. Ukraine’s future is a decision for two: Ukraine’s government and the EU. Under no circumstance shall it be subject to approval or veto by Russia. Obama needs to be tough is with Putin by pushing him to restrain his imperial ambitions and drop contrived fears of encirclement and invasions. Russia has neighbors with grudges galore but no power to be threats – unless Tsar Vlad is scared of Lithuania, Moldova, Georgia or NATO. Russia can squash any country on its fringes or, for that matter, anywhere in Europe. And, as Putin knows, the NATO alliance is not and never has been in the aggression business. Conversely, fear of a revived Russian empire among it’s near and not so near neighbors is justified. Russia oppressed them historically and again menaces their newly-won independence. This is massively obvious in Ukraine. But in the current situation Ukrainians are fighting their government -- as individuals determined to defend their right to choose where their country should steer. Don Le Blanc, a Halifax, Nova Scotia, engineer-entrepreneur and my friend, left Ukraine the day after the mass protests began. The people pouring into the streets, he told me, want to be part of Europe and harbor no hostility to Russia and will get there in the end. Are you listening, President Putin? Are you, EU leaders, sufficiently determined not to give up on them? That these questions arises shows there is reason to worry. It is sad to have Tsar Vlad as the bad actor in the Ukraine drama. It is sadder still have Barack Obama as Putin’s enabler. Had Obama not given Putin his famous “flexibility” it is a good bet the Russian would be showing more restraint. As probably most readers of this column will recall, Obama whispered his promise unaware he was on an open mic: Tell Vladimir “after my election I have more flexibility.” The messenger was Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s outgoing president. The recipient: Vladimir Putin, the incoming, or more accurately the returning president of Russia. The time was March, 2012. The Vlad/Dmitry duo has been swapping jobs for the last fourteen years. ‘Nough said about the players. Ukrainians, it is obvious, had better pray for divine protection. The EU can do only so much and Barack Obama is a bit of a shifty partner to count on.