It is all very well for the Met Office to claim that they know the reason for the recent wet and stormy weather, but it is clear they knew no such thing last November, when they forecast the likely probability of a dry winter. Certainly, the factors in the Pacific, that they now blame, were in play at the time. (If they were not, then they are just “weather”, and cannot be claimed to be linked to “climate change”). None of this gives us much confidence in the Met Office’s ability to forecast more than a few days out. But it must surely also cast doubt on the worth of the latest report, which seems to be a rushed attempt to explain recent bad weather. --Paul Homewood,
Not A Lot Of People Know That, 9 February 2014
Hosepipe bans and other water restrictions may be imposed as far north as Yorkshire this spring if the prolonged dry weather continues, the Environment Agency has said. The south-east of England and East Anglia are already in the grip of the UK’s worst drought in 30 years. Urging people to save water, Caroline Spelman, the environment secretary, said a recent drought summit had highlighted the threat posed by another dry winter and more areas were likely to be affected unless there was significant rainfall in the coming months. Spelman has said that climate change could mean drought is “the new normal” and has urged water companies to produce long-term plans for saving water. –Fiona Harvey,
The Guardian, 12 March 2012
“All the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change”, says Julia Slingo. There is a slight problem though – the Met Office report she quotes , “The Recent Storms and Floods in the UK”, says no such thing at all. The report itself concludes “In terms of the storms and floods of winter 2013/2014, it is not possible, yet, to give a definitive answer on whether climate change has been a contributor or not” --Paul Homewood,
Not A Lot Of People Know That, 9 February 2014
When King Alfred hid in the Somerset marshes from the Danes in 878, he could scarcely have imagined that the marshes of Athelney and the lands of Wessex to the North East would be drained and occupied during both winter and summer, since beforehand, these lands could only be used during the summer: thus the name of my home county – the land of the summer pastures. The Saete of Somersaete, comes from the summer pastures of Norway which are called Saeters or Seters. --Colin Clark,
Water Power, 6 February 2014
The argument that these floods can be pinned to climate change is also looking increasingly thin, particularly after the reminder that just a couple of years ago DEFRA was warning us that drought was the "new normal". --Andrew Montford,
Bishop Hill, 10 February 2014
No one disputes that the past three months have been very wet. But how does it compare with the past? Using the monthly series of rainfall for England and Wales we find the following results for November and December only. There was serious flooding in 1854, 1872-3 and 1929-30. During the latter flood at Taunton, from November 1929 to January 1930 537mm were recorded, which is over 70% of the annual average. The floods lasted from December to February. For the same time period in 2013-14 the rainfall in the upper Brue, which drains into the Levels, was 434mm. An analysis of the highest consecutive three monthly rainfall since 1766 shows that this is the fifth highest, giving it a return period of about 1 in 50 years. Before 1766 possibly the worst flood in historical times was that of 1607.--Colin Clark,
Water Power, 6 February 2014
