It's way too early to start celebrating, of course. I would never underestimate the willingness of Barack Obama and John Kerry to agree to a bunch of foolishness that compromises America and its allies in the quest for a "legacy." But the self-imposed deadline of March 31 is fast approaching, and it doesn't appear the U.S. and its European allies are anywhere near nuclear deal with Iran.
Reuters reports that it all comes down to economic sanctions, which the Iranians insist must be lifted completely as a pre-condition for any deal whatsoever:
"This is the position that the government has insisted on from the start," Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was quoted by the official IRNA news agency as saying. The United Nations, United States and European Union have imposed a wide array of sanctions on Iran to try to curtail its nuclear programme as they fear Tehran wants to develop an atomic weapon. Iran insists its aims are peaceful. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the last word on all matters of state in the Islamic Republic, said in a speech last week that the immediate lifting of sanctions must be a part of any nuclear deal. Western officials have consistently rejected that demand, and a senior European negotiator last week said the immediate lifting of all sanctions was "out of the question".
I'd actually be surprised if this is the only sticking point. It's unimaginable that they've really worked out all the inspection and enforcement questions to both sides' satisfaction. And if they have, then the U.S. delegation is an even bigger bunch of fools than I thought, because that would require them to either trust Iran implicitly (which would be insane), or convince the Iranians to submit to an inspection regime beyond anything the world has ever seen (which is not going to happen).
But on the matter of the sanctions, and the lifting thereof, let me ask you a question: What do you think would cause Obama and Kerry to hesitate on lifting them? They've known all along that this was the only thing motivating Iran to talk in the first place. Since Obama is desperate for a deal with Iran, why not just agree that as the deal is being announced, the sanctions will be lifted?
I can only think of one thing that would cause them hesitation, and that's the fact that the American public - as a result of Benjamin Netanyahu's speech to Congress and as a result of the open letter signed by 47 Republican senators - will be scrutinizing the terms of the deal far more closely than would otherwise have happened without these events taking place. What Obama wants is to announce that he's worked out a nuclear deal with Iran without a bunch of annoying people asking questions about whether we gave up too much to get it.
Because of course we're going to give up too much. He just doesn't want people paying attention to that. Now that Netanyahu and the Republican senators have put these questions into the minds of the public, Obama and Kerry probably can't give away the store as would be their natural inclination without facing questions about it.
So that's the real reason Obama was so enraged by Netanyahu's speech, and by the Republican senators' letter, and by Netanyahu's re-election. Not only did these things make it harder and less advantagous for him to get a deal, it made it harder for him to sign off on a bad deal without being called to account for it. This would explain why he tried so hard to keep details of the negotiations secret from Congress. The more they know, the more substantive reasons they have to oppose what he's trying to do.
So if Obama is really forced to hang tough on sanctions - against his true preferences - and as a result there is no horrendous deal, then it can be said that Bibi and those 47 "treasonous" senators saved the day.
Having said that, I'm not going to celebrate until the talks really end with no deal. Obama is such an appeaser, and such a sympathizer with our enemies, I'm not sure even this is enough to stop him from giving away the store.
