Earth's climate depends on the radiation received from the sun and not on CO2 levels in the air
Fiji Nouveau -- Bonn, Germany
Geography that you may have learnt in school may no longer apply. The Pacific island nation of Fiji will have a new "capital" about this time next year (2017), namely the city of
Bonn, Germany. Fiji is hosting then the 2
nd meeting of the
Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA-2) in Bonn. CMA-2 is the successor to CMA-1 or, by other terminology COP-22 (
22nd Conference of the Parties of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, also known as the
Twelfth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol,CMP-12), recently concluded in Marrakesh, Morocco. According to the
UN, by now 113 of the 197 "Parties" have ratified the agreement made in Paris (at COP-21, in 2015).
No doubt, the tens of thousands of activists that attended some of the previous COP events, like COP-20 in Lima, Peru (estimated attendance at 40,000), or even COP-21 in Paris, France (estimated attendance at 50.000), had a good time, re-energizing each other's commitment, blah, blah. I surmise that CMA-2 in Bonn will draw a much smaller crowd in Bonn than if it were actually being convened in Fiji. What a bummer for the climate-change aficionados: no more expense-paid travel to an exotic warm place that typically comes with local dancers in exotic costumes, exotic cuisine, and other distractions.
Of course, the city of Bonn was the capital of (West)-Germany prior to reunification of the western (U.S., British, and French-controlled) sectors with the eastern one (then controlled by the Soviet Union). Not only has the COP meeting nomenclature changed (from COP to CMP), more importantly, the former enthusiasm is waning rapidly. Needless to say, there is plenty of empty office and hotel space in Bonn these days but the hoteliers' hope for a bonanza may not pan out.
Bonanzas
Bonanzas have a history of falling by the wayside. Ore bodies (which led to the term's original meaning) are becoming depleted and interest in other bonanza-type investment ideas also lose their fashion status once the money stops flowing that previously drove them to "stratospheric heights." What made the previous COP-meetings, now re-termed to CMA-meetings so exciting to many?
It was the hope to partake in the $100 BILLION (annually!) to be paid into a "climate reparation" fund by the rich (mostly western) nations and to be divvied up among those "suffering nations" (SNs) that claim to be suffering from supposedly rising ocean levels, droughts, and other problems ascribed to mankind's use of fossil fuels that, quite naturally, converts them to the vital plant nutrient carbon dioxide (CO2). No wonder, the Agreement (not an international treaty) that was agreed to at Paris (COP-21) has since been praised by all SNs nations that hope for a financial windfall.
Well, you need not look far to realize that promises and non-binding agreements have little weight in real life, especially when the "investments" appear to be doomed to failure. That's when the rats hurriedly abandon the sinking ships. For example, look at Haiti, a nation ravaged by earthquakes, hurricanes and lack of infrastructure. Between large donor nations, other organisations and individual donors, an estimated $1 billion was promised to provide relief. In addition thousands of "volunteers" (collectively) from many places have been working feverishly for years. Still, from recent news videos following hurricane Matthew in October, 2016, for most people the economic situation does not appear to have improved materially since the earthquake in 2010.
Or look at Kosovo in former Yugoslavia. In 1999, over $2 billion in aid were promised, under certain conditions, to the country but only a fraction ever arrived and much of that was used not as intended. Quite often there is a significant gap between promises and the actual payments received. Anyone who might think that the UN-(un ?)-controlled "climate reparation" fund would have a different fate is "dreaming in technicolor," no matter what size of funds it may get at some time.
There are, of course, other reasons to renege on the promises made in Paris or Marrakesh. The most important of such is the increasing realisation that the CO2 level in the atmosphere does not determine the climate on earth, nor on any other planet of our solar system. And that's the crux of the matter. The earth's climate depends on the radiation received from the sun and not on CO2 levels in the air. As it so happens, the number of sunspots is decreasing substantially, even when measured over a longer time.
Radiation from the Sun
You may think that the sun shines equally bright each day. Not so. The sun's radiation is going through various cycles, like the sunspot cycles that last approximately 11 years. The abundance of sunspots has been recorded in detail for several hundred years now, even though they have already been recognized in ancient China and Egypt. A high number of sunspots generally portend more radiative energy from the sun coming to earth than a low number. During the so-called Maunder-Minimum in the second half of the 17
th century, sunspots were nearly absent and extremely cold temperatures were recorded over much of Europe. That time was a severe change from the "
Medieval Warming Period" between 950 and 1250 AD.
The current
sunspot cycle (SC-24, the 24
th cycle) since regular observations began, indicates both short- and longer-term declines. In fact, for some time now, the sun shows next to no sunspots. Period. As a result, Bonn and large parts of Europe's environ may experience colder than normal winters, actually for several decades to come.
But don't be discouraged to attend COP-23, (henceforth to be known as CMA-2, or CMP-13) in Bonn next year. Though mostly a dreary weather season with fog, potentially icy roads, etc., just think of how much nicer it would then be on Fiji.
Perhaps the Fijian government will send a group of dancers to lift your spirits.
Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser -- Bio and
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Dr. Klaus L.E. Kaiser is author of CONVENIENT MYTHS, the green revolution – perceptions, politics, and facts Convenient Myths
