I suppose a #NeverTrumper can comfort himself with the notion that no one expected the five mid-Atlantic states that voted last night to be kind to the Cruz/Kasich alliance. But did anyone expect this?
Trump easily defeated rivals John Kasich and Ted Cruz in all five states that held contests, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware, with a margin of victory rivaling that of his home state of New York a week ago. He was on a path to winning the vote in every single county in each state.
. . .
Of 118 committed delegates available on Tuesday, the Associated Press said Trump took 105, raising his total delegates to 950. Kasich won five, all from Rhode Island, and Cruz one, with seven delegates still to be assigned. Pennsylvania’s 54 unbound delegates will become clearer later.
Trump now stands at more than 75 percent of the way to the necessary 1,237 that would allow him to claim that nomination before the convention. Everyone knew these states were relatively Trump-friendly, but these aren't the numbers you'd expect from a candidate whose campaign is supposedly imploding as party regulars rally around alternatives.
It doesn't guarantee him the nomination, of course. But he leads Cruz by 390 delegates and presently leads the polls by a few percentage points in Indiana, where the May 3 primary will decide the fate of 57 delegates.
Oh, by the way, Pennsylvania decides 54 of its delegates in direct elections where you vote for the delegate him or herself, rather than voting for a presidential candidate to whom the delegate is bound. Those delegates are still to be determined. Good news for Cruz and Kasich, right? Not necessarily. According to Nate Silver, about 35 of those prospective delegates appear to lean Trump.
Cruz and Kasich still have a chance to slow Trump enough to keep him under 1,237, but right now they're cutting it very close, and they can't keep underperforming expectations as they did last night - when expectations were pretty low to begin with.
If Cruz can prove the polls wrong and win in Indiana, it may set the stage for quite a night on June 7 in California - where 172 delegates are at stake, awarded on a winner-take-all basis not to the winner of the state at large but to the winner of each congressional district.
I bet the baseball pennant races aren't as nerve-wracking as this. I wonder if there's a way Cruz and Kasich can trade minor leaguers for some bullpen help.
I suppose a #NeverTrumper can comfort himself with the notion that no one expected the five mid-Atlantic states that voted last night to be kind to the Cruz/Kasich alliance. But did anyone expect this?
