INSS

Is Terrorism Returning to the United States?

by Yoram Schweitzer The attempted attack on Northwest Airlines Flight 253 (December 25, 2009) by a would-be suicide bomber is a rude reminder of the trend that has been emerging for some time, and is evidence of renewed efforts on the part of al-Qaeda and its affiliates to attack the United States on its own soil and US allies around the globe.

US-Iran Negotiations: Simulation Exercise

by Ephraim Asculai, Emily B. Landau, and Tamar Malz-Ginzburg Despite the tendency to denote any simulation exercise on security issues a "war game," the recent simulation designed and held at INSS did not focus on the option of a military attack. Rather, it developed the scenario of a bilateral US-Iranian negotiation over Iran's nuclear program.

Business as Usual in the Persian Gulf: Results from the GCC Annual Summit

By Yoel Guzansky The agenda of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s thirtieth annual summit, which ended last week in Kuwait, was particularly ambitious. Among the topics on the table were establishment of a joint economic council and connection of the inter-state electrical grids and railways.

Iran, China, and the Israeli Stick

by Yoram Evron When President Obama met with the president of China in Beijing last month, he cautioned that he would not be able to block an Israeli attack against Iran much longer unless there is progress in the attempts to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

Abbas’ Proposal for an Undeclared Settlement Freeze

by Mark A. Heller In an interview with Haaretz on December 15, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas repeated his longstanding position that Israeli-Palestinian negotiations can only resume after Israel implements a complete freeze on settlement construction throughout the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.

“Obama’s Choice”: The Afghan-Pakistan Dilemma

By Yoram Schweitzer and Sean London On December 1, President Obama unveiled the administration's new approach towards the wars raging in the Afghan-Pakistan (AfPak) arenas. Entering into office with a message of peace and detente toward the Muslim world, Obama did not make his decision lightly. Yet in light of the alternative strategies proposed by his inner circle, it appears that the president has chosen a solid course regarding the AfPak campaigns.

“The Forgotten War”: The US Withdrawal from Iraq   INSS Insight

By: Yoel Guzansky So far the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has proceeded on schedule. At the same time, the uncertainty over whether elections will be held on time, the probability of heightened motivation to launch strategic terrorist attacks around the scheduled date for elections, Kurdish-Arab volatility, and external constraints such as more US soldiers in Afghanistan are liable to cause a situation whereby the continued withdrawal of forces at the present rate would challenge the relative stability achieved in Iraq over the last two years.

EU Recognition of a Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its Capital

by Oded Eran The declaration by EU heads of state on December 8, 2009 about the political process in the Middle East is no cause for anxiety. However, neither should it be dismissed lightly, and we would do well to examine its long term implications.

The Naval Arena in the Struggle against Iran

By Yoel Guzansky The seizure of the ship carrying weapons from Iran to Syria (intended apparently for Hizbollah via Syria) in early November revealed something of the scope of the struggle between Iran and Israel in general and on the high seas in particular, a struggle that is steadily moving upstage.

Israel, the United States, and the Faltering Peace Process

By Zaki Shalom On November 8, 2009, Tom Friedman published an op-ed piece in The New York Times entitled, “Call White House, Ask for Barack” in which he surveys the sorry state of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. In his opinion, currently neither side is really interested in advancing the process towards a permanent settlement.

Crisis in the Palestinian Authority

By Shlomo Brom The failure of the American effort to restart the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians over the final settlement has created a political crisis in the Palestinian Authority.

Iran Rejects the Uranium Deal

By Ephraim Kam Since early October 2009, the talks between Iran and P5+1 (the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany) have focused on the proposal for a circular deal:

A Possible US-Russian Arrangement and Implications for the Middle East

By Zvi Magen We have recently been witness to a new US initiative launched by the Obama administration for dialogue with Russia that affects both the bilateral and global levels.

Chancellor Merkel’s Second Government: Continuity and Change

by Shimon Stein A month after the general elections in Germany on September 27, 2009, the German parliament (Bundestag) convened for its first session, at which time Chancellor Merkel’s second government was sworn in. Merkel completed the coalition negotiations with the government's new partner, the Liberal party, in record time.

The Nuclear Fuel Deal with Iran: Losing Sight of the Broader Picture?

by Emily B. Landau and Ephraim Asculai The emerging nuclear fuel deal between the US, Russia, France, and Iran – whether it is actually implemented or not – is shaping up as another point Iran has scored to fend off international efforts that would cease its uranium enrichment activities.

The Historic Accord between Turkey and Armenia: What Lies Ahead?

By Gallia Lindenstrauss The agreement signed in Zurich on October 10, 2009 between Turkey and Armenia to establish diplomatic relations offers hope that some of the difficult problems in the southern Caucasus may soon be resolved.

The IAEA and Israel

by Ephraim Asculai Israel was one of the founding members of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which was established in 1957. At that time there were high hopes for this organization, established as a follow-up to President Eisenhower's vision of Atoms for Peace. It was to be a technical organization, with the objectives to:

The Implications of Iran’s Second Enrichment Plant

Asculai, Ephraim On Friday, September 25, 2009 Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it had a second uranium enrichment plant under construction. Suspicions concerning a parallel, concealed enrichment program were in fact circulating for some time before the announcement. Iran reportedly disclosed the information to the IAEA because it discovered that Western intelligence agencies became aware of this parallel program and wanted to avoid further embarrassment.

Israel and the Gulf States: A Thaw in Relations?

Guzansky, Yoel As part of the attempt to jumpstart Israeli-Palestinian discussions, the American administration has in recent months expended significant effort on persuading different Arab nations, headed by the Gulf states, to make certain gestures towards Israel. While in geopolitical terms the Arab-Israeli arena and the Persian Gulf arena are separate, the Persian Gulf states are nonetheless directly or indirectly involved in the Arab-Israeli conflict and are influenced by Israeli-Palestinian relations.

Israel and Russian Foreign Policy

By Magen, Zvi The international community has of late demonstrated active political engagement in everything concerning the Middle East. There is heightened anticipation of strategic developments, whether political or military.