INSS

Can the US Contain a Nuclear Iran?

- Emily B. Landau With any hope of a new round of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran now postponed until June, and the understanding that if at all, these will be weak and ineffective measures, Obama's diplomatic initiative is slowly grinding to a halt.

Israel, the United States, and the Military Option against Iran,

- Zaki Shalom, Jonathan Schachter In a speech at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on February 26, 2010, Defense Minister Ehud Barak made extensive reference to Iran, its attempts to obtain nuclear capabilities, and the policy ramifications for the major powers and Israel towards Iran. Despite a certain measure of opacity in his address, Barak did make some unequivocal statements of interest. These express the situation assessment prevalent in Israel regarding Iran’s nuclear goal and the gaps between Israel and the American administration and their implications from Israel’s perspective. What follows are highlights:

Iraq: The Elections and their Aftermath

Yoel Guzansky The importance of the recent elections in Iraq cannot be overstated. Even if their legitimacy was challenged by the disqualification of candidates, bribery, arrests, and even murders, the very fact that elections took place is significant and, the results will largely determine the character of the state during and after the withdrawal of the American forces.

The Palestinian Decision to Engage in Proximity Talks with Israel

Shlomo Brom On March 3, 2010, the Arab League foreign ministers’ follow-up committee, meeting in Cairo, adopted a decision supporting the start of “proximity talks” between Israel and the Palestinians. At stake are negotiations that would be conducted in a similar format to that of the Israel-Syria negotiations with Turkish mediation during Prime Minister Olmert’s term in office, i.e., with the negotiating teams situated in the same city while the Turkish mediator moved between them.

A US Volte-Face?

Ephraim Asculai For the sake of argument, let us assume that the US administration has already arrived at the tacit conclusion that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons is inevitable, in spite of all US and international efforts to prevent this. What would the repercussions be if this conclusion became known? How would the administration behave if its conclusions became known to the public? How would it work to minimize the ensuing damages from this revelation, both internally and internationally?

Withdrawal from the Golan Heights in Stages

Shlomo Brom According to recent report,[1] in a meeting held a few weeks ago with a group of British policy analysts, Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem said: “For peacemaking, Israel needs to be ready to recognize that Syria is entitled to every inch of the Golan, but we wish to engage in talks." "For us," he continued, "the land is sacred and a matter of honour." Later in the meeting, he mentioned a possible outline for withdrawal from the Golan Heights in tandem with stages of normalization with Israel:

The United States and the Buildup of Military Force in the Persian Gulf

by Yiftah Shapir Recent international media reports have mentioned the accelerated deployment of American defensive missile systems in the Persian Gulf as preparation for the possibility of an Iranian missile attack in the Gulf region. In a rare statement released to the media, CENTCOM commander General Petraeus also referred to this deployment.

Iran’s Brinkmanship is Paying Off

by Ephraim Asculai On Tuesday, February 8, 2010, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, announced that Iran began enriching uranium from 3.5 to 20% uranium-235. Iran claims that it needs this uranium for its Tehran Nuclear Research Reactor (TNRR).

A Proposal for the Resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations for a Two-State Solution

by: Oded Eran The U.S. is currently engaged in the attempt to revive final status negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and the government of Israel. While Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has declared his wish to open negotiations without prior conditions, Palestinian President Abbas (Abu Mazen) has repeatedly asked for a complete settlement freeze for at least several months. He also wants "clarifications" on the American proposal to resume negotiations in proximity talks, i.e., no face-to-face negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, but with the U.S. serving as an intermediary.

The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: Where Is the Obama Administration Headed?

by: Zaki Shalom Eight months ago, President Obama stood on the dais at Cairo University and declared with great fanfare that he intends to open a “new page” in relations between the United States and the Islamic world in general and the Arab states in particular.

Abu Mazen Visits Russia: New Mediation in the Middle East?

by: Zvi Magen Abu Mazen visited Russia from January 26 to January 28, 2010, as part of a round of meetings that included visits to Germany and Britain (his previous visit to Russia took place in April 2008).

Iran: The Time Has Come

By Ephraim Asculai If its domestic situation were not so serious, Iran's government could be very happy indeed. Iran managed to gain another crucial year in its quest for a nuclear weapons capability, and every passing day brings it closer to its ultimate goal:

An Incremental Leap in Defense Deployment of the Civilian Front

Meir Elran In early 2010 the Israeli public and the country’s enemies learned of two important developments with regard to intensified protection of the civilian front. It was reported unofficially that the security cabinet decided to distribute protection kits to the public beginning in February 2010, over a period of three years and costing some NIS 1 billion.

Yemen: Profile of a Failed Arab State

by Yoel Guzansky The media prominence given to Yemen, this time for the aborted attempt to down a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day, is not accidental. For some time Yemen has been a center of instability and proof that the clash between states – at least in the Middle East – has been superseded by local or even global distress caused by the weakness, possibly collapse, of national entities.

The US National Strategy for Dealing with Biological Threats

by David Friedman The 2001 anthrax envelopes affair was a formative event, as in its wake the United States and the West escalated their response to the threat of biological terrorism, including new legislation and extensive resources.

Is Terrorism Returning to the United States?

by Yoram Schweitzer The attempted attack on Northwest Airlines Flight 253 (December 25, 2009) by a would-be suicide bomber is a rude reminder of the trend that has been emerging for some time, and is evidence of renewed efforts on the part of al-Qaeda and its affiliates to attack the United States on its own soil and US allies around the globe.

US-Iran Negotiations: Simulation Exercise

by Ephraim Asculai, Emily B. Landau, and Tamar Malz-Ginzburg Despite the tendency to denote any simulation exercise on security issues a "war game," the recent simulation designed and held at INSS did not focus on the option of a military attack. Rather, it developed the scenario of a bilateral US-Iranian negotiation over Iran's nuclear program.

Business as Usual in the Persian Gulf: Results from the GCC Annual Summit

By Yoel Guzansky The agenda of the Gulf Cooperation Council’s thirtieth annual summit, which ended last week in Kuwait, was particularly ambitious. Among the topics on the table were establishment of a joint economic council and connection of the inter-state electrical grids and railways.

Iran, China, and the Israeli Stick

by Yoram Evron When President Obama met with the president of China in Beijing last month, he cautioned that he would not be able to block an Israeli attack against Iran much longer unless there is progress in the attempts to stop Iran’s nuclear program.

Abbas’ Proposal for an Undeclared Settlement Freeze

by Mark A. Heller In an interview with Haaretz on December 15, Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas repeated his longstanding position that Israeli-Palestinian negotiations can only resume after Israel implements a complete freeze on settlement construction throughout the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.