INSS

Friction in the Gulf: The Disputed Islands and Iran’s Push for Regional Hegemony

Yoel Guzansky, and Emily B. Landau In an unusual statement, the foreign minister of the United Arab Emirates recently compared the Iranian occupation of the three Gulf islands it claims – Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb – to “the Israeli occupation of Arab land.” Both the highly irregular statement and the sensitive analogy dramatize the concern in the Gulf that Iran, under the aegis of its nuclear program, seeks to dominate not only the region’s agenda but also Arab territory.

Nuclear Terrorism: Threat to the Public or to Credibility?

Jonathan Schachter, Yoel Guzansky, and Yoram Schweitzer During a recent trip to Prague, where he signed a new arms control treaty with Russia, President Barack Obama declared that nuclear terrorism is “the most immediate and extreme threat to global security.” Though the unique destructive power of nuclear arms justifies his concern regarding their spread and potential use, this grave assessment regarding the imminent threat of nuclear terrorism does not appear to stand up to scrutiny, and might even set the stage for weaker international non-proliferation resolve in the future.

The Saudi Nuclear Option

Yoel Guzansky On the basis of a memo written by the US Secretary of Defense, the New York Times reported recently that “the United States does not have an effective long-range policy for dealing with Iran’s steady progress toward nuclear capability.” On the same day, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia issued a royal order establishing a science complex called King Abdullah City dedicated solely to “research and development of all aspects of nuclear energy.”

Muddling the Iran Issue

Jonathan Schachter, Emily B. Landau,, and Ephraim Asculai On April 17 the New York Times revealed that in January US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wrote a memo to National Security Adviser James Jones on the need to develop policy options regarding Iran’s drive to develop nuclear weapons.

The Importance of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

Tamar Malz-Ginzburg The new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which the presidents of the United States and Russia signed a few days ago in a festive ceremony in the ancient castle in Prague, is a continuation of START I, signed between the United States and the former Soviet Union in July 1991. The treaty dealt with a reduction in the number of nuclear warheads and the means of launching nuclear weapons. This is likewise the stated purpose of the new treaty: to reduce the strategic nuclear arsenal of both countries. The treaty also allows the continuation of the attempt to control the proliferation of fissile material from Russia to hostile elements – one of the primary goals of the original START.

Can the US Contain a Nuclear Iran?

- Emily B. Landau With any hope of a new round of UN Security Council sanctions on Iran now postponed until June, and the understanding that if at all, these will be weak and ineffective measures, Obama's diplomatic initiative is slowly grinding to a halt.

Israel, the United States, and the Military Option against Iran,

- Zaki Shalom, Jonathan Schachter In a speech at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on February 26, 2010, Defense Minister Ehud Barak made extensive reference to Iran, its attempts to obtain nuclear capabilities, and the policy ramifications for the major powers and Israel towards Iran. Despite a certain measure of opacity in his address, Barak did make some unequivocal statements of interest. These express the situation assessment prevalent in Israel regarding Iran’s nuclear goal and the gaps between Israel and the American administration and their implications from Israel’s perspective. What follows are highlights:

Iraq: The Elections and their Aftermath

Yoel Guzansky The importance of the recent elections in Iraq cannot be overstated. Even if their legitimacy was challenged by the disqualification of candidates, bribery, arrests, and even murders, the very fact that elections took place is significant and, the results will largely determine the character of the state during and after the withdrawal of the American forces.

The Palestinian Decision to Engage in Proximity Talks with Israel

Shlomo Brom On March 3, 2010, the Arab League foreign ministers’ follow-up committee, meeting in Cairo, adopted a decision supporting the start of “proximity talks” between Israel and the Palestinians. At stake are negotiations that would be conducted in a similar format to that of the Israel-Syria negotiations with Turkish mediation during Prime Minister Olmert’s term in office, i.e., with the negotiating teams situated in the same city while the Turkish mediator moved between them.

A US Volte-Face?

Ephraim Asculai For the sake of argument, let us assume that the US administration has already arrived at the tacit conclusion that Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons is inevitable, in spite of all US and international efforts to prevent this. What would the repercussions be if this conclusion became known? How would the administration behave if its conclusions became known to the public? How would it work to minimize the ensuing damages from this revelation, both internally and internationally?

Withdrawal from the Golan Heights in Stages

Shlomo Brom According to recent report,[1] in a meeting held a few weeks ago with a group of British policy analysts, Syrian foreign minister Walid Muallem said: “For peacemaking, Israel needs to be ready to recognize that Syria is entitled to every inch of the Golan, but we wish to engage in talks." "For us," he continued, "the land is sacred and a matter of honour." Later in the meeting, he mentioned a possible outline for withdrawal from the Golan Heights in tandem with stages of normalization with Israel:

The United States and the Buildup of Military Force in the Persian Gulf

by Yiftah Shapir Recent international media reports have mentioned the accelerated deployment of American defensive missile systems in the Persian Gulf as preparation for the possibility of an Iranian missile attack in the Gulf region. In a rare statement released to the media, CENTCOM commander General Petraeus also referred to this deployment.

Iran’s Brinkmanship is Paying Off

by Ephraim Asculai On Tuesday, February 8, 2010, Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, announced that Iran began enriching uranium from 3.5 to 20% uranium-235. Iran claims that it needs this uranium for its Tehran Nuclear Research Reactor (TNRR).

A Proposal for the Resumption of the Israeli-Palestinian Negotiations for a Two-State Solution

by: Oded Eran The U.S. is currently engaged in the attempt to revive final status negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and the government of Israel. While Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has declared his wish to open negotiations without prior conditions, Palestinian President Abbas (Abu Mazen) has repeatedly asked for a complete settlement freeze for at least several months. He also wants "clarifications" on the American proposal to resume negotiations in proximity talks, i.e., no face-to-face negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, but with the U.S. serving as an intermediary.

The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process: Where Is the Obama Administration Headed?

by: Zaki Shalom Eight months ago, President Obama stood on the dais at Cairo University and declared with great fanfare that he intends to open a “new page” in relations between the United States and the Islamic world in general and the Arab states in particular.

Abu Mazen Visits Russia: New Mediation in the Middle East?

by: Zvi Magen Abu Mazen visited Russia from January 26 to January 28, 2010, as part of a round of meetings that included visits to Germany and Britain (his previous visit to Russia took place in April 2008).

Iran: The Time Has Come

By Ephraim Asculai If its domestic situation were not so serious, Iran's government could be very happy indeed. Iran managed to gain another crucial year in its quest for a nuclear weapons capability, and every passing day brings it closer to its ultimate goal:

An Incremental Leap in Defense Deployment of the Civilian Front

Meir Elran In early 2010 the Israeli public and the country’s enemies learned of two important developments with regard to intensified protection of the civilian front. It was reported unofficially that the security cabinet decided to distribute protection kits to the public beginning in February 2010, over a period of three years and costing some NIS 1 billion.

Yemen: Profile of a Failed Arab State

by Yoel Guzansky The media prominence given to Yemen, this time for the aborted attempt to down a Detroit-bound airliner on Christmas Day, is not accidental. For some time Yemen has been a center of instability and proof that the clash between states – at least in the Middle East – has been superseded by local or even global distress caused by the weakness, possibly collapse, of national entities.

The US National Strategy for Dealing with Biological Threats

by David Friedman The 2001 anthrax envelopes affair was a formative event, as in its wake the United States and the West escalated their response to the threat of biological terrorism, including new legislation and extensive resources.