If there's one truism in politics that actually holds water, it's that you don't want to peak too soon. You can be up by 20 points, but if it happens in June, it's essentially meaningless. Unfortunately this means that, in an election year, June through August are interminable for policy wonks and political junkies. Nothing much happens, because no one wants to be the candidate who says, or does, the wrong thing. (See Akin, Todd)
