Watch Out for Sleight-of-Hand

In previous articles I have shown that correlation does not equal causation. I have shown that an increase in atmospheric CO2 does not prove any connection with weather or climate.

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Green scientists already know that correlation does not establish a cause-and-effect relationship between two variables. And, as I said in my last article, now they have dramatically increased the number of variables, such an effect would be impossible to establish because of the complexity of the supposed links! Yet, they continue to bamboozle the public with idiotic and unscientific ‘proof’ that humans cause the increase in CO2 and the increase in CO2 ‘causes’ climate change! On the other hand, a time series correlation can eliminate a cause-and-effect relationship. To quote scientist Wayne P Kraus (private email):

“So, when ice core data* have been corrected for ‘fiern diffusion’, and plotted correctly - not the sleight-of-hand used by Al Gore in his movie - we can safely rule out that an increase in atmospheric CO2 levels, that follow the rise in global temperature (based on the O16/O18 isotropic ration) by 800 to 1000 years, cannot be the cause of an increase in global temperature. As we all know, Gore tried to deceive his audience by juxtaposing irrelevant facts in a context of his AGW theory.” (* Prof Ian Clark)

To put it in less technical language: the existence of CO2 does NOT prove it is the cause of any global warming… and even the concept of ‘global’ is flawed because it has not been shown that temperature has risen all over the world at the same time. And, even where temperature has risen, it has been insignificant. To make the tiny rise in temperature equal disaster is the same as saying that if I drive to the beach and park for five minutes, it caused a later tidal wave. Yes, my car was there, and a tidal wave followed my visit, but the correlation does not in any way ‘prove’ my car caused the tidal wave! Is that a stupid illustration? Yes, it is, just like the ones used by Gore and his ridiculously green scientific friends. Or, as Kraus calls it – junk science.

Correlation Does Not Prove Cause

I have said it before and keep saying it: there is NO SCIENCE that proves increased CO2 leads to temperature or climate change. Far from it – the science shows that temperature increases are followed by, not preceded by, CO2 increase. The greens are making a direct correlative link (that is, cause-and-effect) between CO2 and climate, when none has been proven. Their propositions belong in Marvel comics rather than in scientific papers! To again quote Kraus:

“The only fact established by the Phil Jones and Michael Mann ‘hockey stick’ plots is that climate has varied over geologic time… Any connection to CO2 is just a fantasy of the imagination.”

Dr Martin Hertzberg published that CO2 hit its effect-limit at 80 ppmv. Or, to put it another way, you can pump up as much CO2 as you wish – it will make no difference, because ‘saturation’ point has been reached! And many scientists say that the ceiling was hit millennia ago, which means any link between CO2 and temperature is garble! The amount of Ir energy absorbed drops exponentially with concentration, c. (Anyone who wants the equation is free to request it) So, the hype being put out by Jones et al is just nonsense, junk science meant to deceive the public. And, as I have intimated before, scientists are just as prone to deception as anyone else; they read something in a journal and automatically believe it to be fact. For myself, alarm bells ring any time I read ‘facts’ written in mythical terms! I watch for the ‘if’ and the ‘maybe’, the ‘possibly’ and the other non-scientific evidences put out by those with more prose than proof. To again quote Kraus:

“The absolute proof that increasing CO2 concentrations cannot create runaway global temperature rise, is refuted by the empirically-derived Beer-Lambert Law for electromagnetic energy absorption. The absorption of IR energy drops asymptotically as solute concentration increases.”

[url=http://www.files.chem.vt.edu/chem-ed/spec/beerslaw.html"]http://www.files.chem.vt.edu/chem-ed/spec/beerslaw.html"[/url] The life cycle of CO2 is amazingly short, and the more of it goes up in the air the quicker it disappears!

The Real Point

The real essence of the AGW debate (a contradiction in terms because people like Jones and Mann deny climate realists any chance to put forward their arguments) is that it does not rest only on lies and fraud. It rests on the actual science, which is badly abused to support a political aim. They are all using sleight-of-hand as usual, despite stark proofs that they are lying. Thus, green claims are almost exclusively based on the ‘time series analysis’ of so-called climate temperature versus time. But, as we have already noted, CORRELATION DOES NOT ESTABLISH CAUSE AND EFFECT CONNECTIONS! This truth permeates all of research, and even the law. Time-series correlation is, in scientific (and philosophical) terms, necessary but not sufficient to establish cause and effect. There is a lot more we could say, but the above is sufficient. Scientists are lying their heads off, along with Gore and governments. Governments pay the IPCC to establish a connection between CO2 and climate/temperature. This is because it gives them the reason needed to exact harsh taxes, extreme energy prices, deny freedoms, and exert draconian totalitarianism on the people. It is about time ALL scientists joined the throng of climate realists, so that the ‘green thing’ can be dumped back into the pit from which it climbed. All disciplines require a proper and proven link between correlation and cause. Until greens get their act together and provide the links, no genuine scientist (of any discipline) will take them seriously. Barry Napier runs christiandoctrine.com. The Global Green Agenda’, Barry Napier. Published, Petra Press, 2009. For other anti-green books by Barry Napier contact the author: barry.napier@ntlworld.com