-MICHAEL WEBSTER: Syndicated Investigative Reporter
The US Department of Defense considers Mexico one of the two governments in the world most likely to suffer a “rapid and sudden collapse” that could require military intervention. A section on “weak and failing countries,” of a report recently released by the US Joint Forces Command says that narcotraffic and organized crime could generate a chaotic scene and the army would be obligated to respond for reasons of national security. At the end of 2008, the US government declared the Mexican drug cartels to be the greatest threat to its territory.
In their meeting Monday, President-elect Obama and President Calderon agreed to establish an alliance to work bilaterally in combating drug and arms traffic, commerce and migration. This is Obama’s first meeting with a president of another country since his election. He also promised to collaborate with the Mexican government in matters of security.
President elect Obama met with Mexican President Felipe Calderon, continuing a longstanding tradition by which new American presidents meet with their Mexican counterparts.
Emerging from a private lunch at the Mexican Cultural Institute that lasted over an hour, President-elect Obama expressed his commitment to advance cooperation on a range of issues, including security, the economy and immigration.
“On security, President-elect Obama underscored his interest in finding ways to work together to reduce drug-related violence. He applauded the steps that President Calderón has taken to improve security in Mexico and expressed his on-going support for the valuable work being done under the Mérida Initiative. Obama said he believes the cooperation under the Mérida Initiative can be a building block for a deeper relationship.
Obama expressed support for President Calderón’s pet project for the United States and Mexico to eradicate drug-related violence and stop the flow of guns and cash into Mexico. He told President Calderón that he intends to ask the Secretary of Homeland Security to lead an effort to increase information sharing to strengthen those efforts.
Calderon, whom U.S. officials have praised for deploying troops to fight cartels and capturing top drug kingpins, helped him win a multimillion-dollar, anti-drug aid package from the Bush Administration late last year. Interestingly Obama supports that plan, known as the Merida Initiative.
Obama further said he is an admirer of Calderon's stewardship of Mexico's economy, as well as his efforts to fight deadly drug violence.
According to the U.S. Joint Forces Command there is one dynamic in the literature of weak and failing states that has received relatively little attention, namely the phenomenon of “rapid collapse.” For the most part, weak and failing states represent chronic, long-term problems that allow for management over sustained periods.
The collapse of a state usually comes as a surprise, has a rapid onset, and poses acute problems. The collapse of Yugoslavia into a chaotic tangle of warring nationalities in 1990 suggests how suddenly and catastrophically state collapse can happen - in this case, a state which had hosted the 1984 Winter Olympics at Sarajevo, and which then quickly became the epicenter of the ensuing civil war.
In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world is Mexico a large and important country bordering the United States and could be facing a rapid and sudden collapse.
The Mexican possibility of a failed state may seem less likely to many, but the Government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and wealthy Mexican drug cartels. How that internal conflict of which many experts believe is actually a civil war turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state and therefore the U.S. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.
Mexico poses a real threat to the national security interests of the Western Hemisphere. In particular, the growing assault by the warring Mexican drug cartels and their many gangs of thugs on the Mexican government over the past several years reminds one that an unstable Mexico represents a homeland security problem of immense proportions to the United States.
U.S. Joint Forces Command (USJFCOM) is one of DoD’s nine combatant commands and has several key roles in transforming the U.S. military’s capabilities.
Headquartered in Norfolk, Va., the command oversees a force of more than 1.16 million dedicated men and women, spanning USJFCOM's service component commands and subordinate activities. The command is comprised of active and reserve personnel from each branch of the armed forces, civil servants and contract employees.
Editors note:
Michael Webster’s Syndicated Investigative Reports are read worldwide, in 100 or more U.S. outlets and in at least 136 countries and territories. He has published articles for MaximsNews, which is associated with MediaChannel.org and Globalvision News Network, global news and media information services with more than 350 news affiliates in 135 countries. Many of Mr. Webster’s articles are printed in six working languages: English, French, Arabic, Chinese, Russian and Spanish. With ten more languages planed in the near future.
Mr. Webster is America's leading authority on Venture Capital/Equity Funding. A trustee on some of the nations largest trade Union funds. A noted Author, Lecturer, Educator, Emergency Manager, Counter-Terrorist, War on Drugs and War on Terrorist Specialist, Business Consultant, Newspaper Publisher. Radio News caster. Labor Law generalist, Teamster Union Business Agent, General Organizer, Union Rank and File Member Grievances Representative, NLRB Union Representative, Union Contract Negotiator, Workers Compensation Appeals Board Hearing Representative. Mr. Webster publishes the on-line newspaper the Laguna Journal and does investigative reports for print, electronic and on-line News Agencies.
