Ian R. Campbell

How negative might U.S. QE3 announced September 13 really be?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Economy: Ray Dalio (Bridgewater Associates) on deleveraging (and other things) Why read: Ray Dalio is one of the world’s most successful money manager. He is a ‘plain talker’ and I think very good thinker. Commentary: While an hour is a long time to commit to listen to an interview, this is one lengthy interview that I suggest you take the time to listen to at least parts of it, and think about what Dalio says. In particular, you might want to listen at:

Possible importance of results of Wednesday, September 12 Netherland’s general election result

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Netherlands: Possible importance of results of Wednesday, September 12 Netherland’s general election result Why read: Because last week the Netherlands held its fifth general election in ten years, and the outcome may weight on what happens in the end in the Eurozone. Commentary: In 2011 the Netherlands was the fifth largest economy in the 17 country Eurozone, and (by coincidence) the seventeenth largest economy in the world (source Wikipedia). This makes it a Eurozone country with an important voice.

Consider what game Spain may be playing

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Spain: Consider what game Spain may be playing That Spain will request – likely in weeks and not months – financial aid from its eurozone partners seems a certainty. Why Spain is playing a ‘wait and see’ game is an interesting question.

Canadian auto workers – is it really ‘business as usual’?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> Canada: Canadian auto workers – is it really ‘business as usual’? In a more repetitive vein than I like, I have said a number of times in this Newsletter that I believe:

Roubini sees ‘perfect world economic storm’ – why is this new ‘news’?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Economy: Roubini sees ‘perfect world economic storm’ – why is this new ‘news’? Nouriel Roubini, speaking September 7, is reported as predicting we face years of world economic ‘gloom’ irrespective of what is decided by political leaders in the Eurozone. Roubini said this would be driven by a ‘painful process of deleveraging, and up to a decade of low economic growth. The latter is said to be supported by an OECD report released September 6 that said the G7 economies would grow at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q3 2012 – and that there now exists worldwide “dampening global confidence, weakening trade and employment and slowing economic growth”.

Are German Parliamentarians Dutch Burghers or are they Germans?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Germany >> Greece: Are German Parliamentarians Dutch Burghers or are they Germans? Why read: Because things can happen very quickly, and it may be that ‘push’ finally may be coming to ‘shove’ in the Eurozone. Commentary: Even if ‘push’ and ‘shove’ don’t meet in the Eurozone over Greece (and Spain) in the next few weeks and months, time nonetheless seems to be shortening for Greece (and Spain), and eventually ‘push’ and ‘shove’ must meet. I have said for months now that:

Survey of ‘about to be retired’ persons, President Clinton’s Speech Last Evening

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> Canada: Survey of ‘about to be retired’ persons In a survey of Canadians now between 50 – 60 years old, said to have an statistical error rate of not more than +/- 3.5%:

U.S. Vice-Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan at Tampa Republican Convention

North America >> United States: U.S. Vice-Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan at Tampa Republican Convention You may have watched and listened to Paul Ryan speak last evening at the Republican Party Convention. My comments:

World shipping crisis? Spain: where there is smoke, usually there is fire

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Container Shipping: World shipping crisis? Why read: Because shipping activity arguably is a particularly good predictor of things to come in the near-term. Commentary: Apparently German shipping experts believe two-thirds of Germany’s marine fleet is in financial distress – this in circumstances where it is said that German shipping companies control 40% of the world’s container business. At the same time, there are reports that;

China and significant new stimulus, George Soros interview in June

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Asia >> China: China and significant new stimulus Overview: You might want to read this article for confirmation that China’s government seems to be increasingly concerned about growth as it announces ‘stimulus packages’. The article includes what I think is some good ‘on site’ reporting of what is going on economically in parts of China.

Chinese manufacturing index drops further in August

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Asia >> China: Chinese manufacturing index drops further in August Why read: To keep up to date with China’s apparent continuing decline in manufacturing outputs – and to focus on the importance of Chinese GDP growth in the context of world economic recovery or recession. Commentary: The Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) has fallen again in August to 47.8 based on preliminary figures, and Chinese inventory levels are said to be the highest on record. A PMI under 50 is taken as a signal of manufacturing contraction, whereas a PMI of over 50 is taken as a signal of manufacturing expansion.

Views from the streets of the former East Germany, Poland, and other interesting places

Today’s Detailed Commentaries European Union >> Eurozone: Views from the streets of the former East Germany, Poland, and other interesting places Why read: To learn economic ‘views from the street’ recently expressed in Copenhagen (and elsewhere in Denmark), Gdansk (Poland), Gotland and Stockholm (Sweden), Helsinki (Finland), Riga (Latvia), St. Petersburg (Russia), Tallinn (Estonia), and Warnemunde (former East Germany). Commentary: Last evening my wife and I returned to Toronto from a two week, twelve city/town trip to Europe/Russia’s Baltic Sea area. Among other highlights, we were the first North Americans to play golf at a golf course near Warnemunde, Germany – first opened for play in 2003.

High Frequency Algorithmic Trading Overviewed, Paul Krugman on deficit spending

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Financial Markets: High Frequency Algorithmic Trading Overviewed Why Read: If you participate either directly, or have capital invested in the financial markets that is managed by others, you ought to have a basic understanding what high frequency algorithmic trading is, what it isn’t, and generally how it works.

Return of manufacturing to America?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> United States: Return of manufacturing to America? A recent article overviews somewhat futuristic manufacturing methodologies referred to as:

• ‘additive manufacturing’, which uses three dimensional print electronics to manufacture products; and,
• molecular manufacturing.

Corporate interest rates thwarting competitiveness – really?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Italy: Corporate interest rates thwarting competitiveness – really? Why read: To think about whether a 2.5% change in a company’s borrowing rates ought to materially affect a company’s competitive position. Certainly that could be the ‘takeaway’ from a recent article.

Consider the timing of reporting, October 2008 and now

Today’s Detailed Commentaries World >> Statistics: Consider the timing of reporting Last week U.S. home prices in May were reported by S&P/Case-Shiller. The composite 20-city home price index, said to be ‘a key gauge of U.S. home prices’, was reported to be up 2.2% in May from April, and down 0.7% from May, 2011. This has generally been seen as good news – a possible ‘green shoot’ in the U.S. field of soggy economic ground as it were.

‘Update on Italy, The consequences of contagion?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries Eurozone >> Italy: Update on Italy Why Read: Because Italy may already be ‘the next big thing’ in the Eurozone economic crisis. Everyone needs to be aware of that, and one ‘buries their head in the sand’ on this at their own peril.

Overview of August 2 U.S. jobs report

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> United States: Overview of August 2 U.S. jobs report

This morning’s U.S. jobs report, Mr. Bernanke’s postponement strategy?

Today’s Detailed Commentaries North America >> United States: This morning’s U.S. jobs report This month’s U.S. job report reported that non-farm payrolls increased by 163,000 in July, higher than the 100,000 broadly estimated. The report also said that the unemployment rate increased by 1/10^th of 1% to 8.3% in July.

A circular problem – capital spending decision-making and unemployment

Snippet #1: There is no good solution to this manufacturing job loss issue that I can think of in the current economic environment, where ‘a job in the hand may be worth as much as five jobs in the bush’. Essentially, while such behavior on the part of plant personnel is understandable – who wants to go ‘out on a limb’ to have it break off and ‘fall’ – it is counterproductive to, and inconsistent with, economic stability and perhaps recovery.